Longshot

A quick tangent here. Just finished the book Longshot by Lance Allred. Allred was a 24 year-old, 6th-year senior who entered the 2005 draft out of Weber State where he played for 2 seasons after transfering from Utah. Allred came out as a strong rebounding center with few other skills. I remember him coming out and I doubt I had much good to say about him other than he could board.
His career stats will ultimately become just a blip in NBA history. But as a writer Allred is pretty darn impressive. His story takes him from a childhood growing up in a polygamist cult through many different rungs on the basketball ladder all the way to the NBA, all while dealing with deafness and afflicted with OCD. The story is told in such an easy and humorous tone that you almost forget what an amazing journey it was.
While Allred's atypical childhood makes for an interesting read, Longshot really picks up for the hoops fan when he first gets into basketball. Allred does a terrific job detailing the ups and downs of a professional basketball player chasing the NBA dream. While reading Allred's story you realize that so many things can derail a marginal prospect on his way to NBA. That it takes luck, timing, good situations in college and perseverance above all else to reach the point where you might get a 10-day contract.
Longshot is a quick, easy read that's well worth the effort.

Emerging Cs

Last in this riveting 5-part series. Same deal here as with the PFs. Big guys tend to fade once the conference games start, so the status of these guys is shaky until they keep things going into Feb. I'll also point out that this is shaping up as another weak year for the bigs. Aldrich has so far regressed, while rooks Cousins, Henson and Favors still have something to prove.

• Omar Samhan, St. Mary's: He's been a good player for awhile, but last year he and the rest of the Gaels took a backseat to the Patrick Mills show. This year he's the go-to guy and he's taken full advantage. In a close loss to Vanderbilt he destroyed AJ Ogilvy, which is a very promising sign for him. Seniors who suddenly emerge have a tougher road, but at least Samhan is putting himself in the discussion.
• Epke Udoh, Baylor: He's a junior transfer from Michigan. So far the lone star state has been good for him. He's hit over 60% of his shots so far and has flashed some terrific passing skills. Conference games will offer the real test for Udoh, as no conference has better big men than the Big 12.
• Hamady N'diaye, Rutgers: The senior has been a good shotblocker for 3 years now. This year he's blocking shots as well as any player in the nation. His other numbers are ordinary, but good enough. Shotblockers are always a hot item though so he has an advantage there.
• Brian Qvale, Montana: This junior has improved enough that the opinion we have to take with him is: He's not going to be a great player, but he's 6'11" 255 and is putting up good numbers across the board. That makes him worth a look.
• Eli Holman, Detroit: Sophomore transfer from Indiana. Marginal right now as a prospect, but he's starting to show some flashes. Turnovers are a problem he'll have to correct and playing at a lower level will require him to be more dominant than the others.

emerging PFs

Big guys are different from smaller players. Around this time of year there are often several who are off to hot starts. That ends once the conference games start and the competition gets tougher. With that in mind, I wouldn't commit any of these names to memory just yet. That said, these guys have stepped up so far and will be watched.

• Willie Reed, St. Louis: Sophomore is off to a great start so far that includes double-doubles against Iowa State and Notre Dame, 2 schools each with a pro prospect at PF. Concern with Reed would be his efficiency and whether or not he can keep it up.
• Herb Pope, Seton Hall: More of a combo than a true PF. Pope is listed as a junior, but only has a half year of experience coming in, having transfered from New Mexico State. Right now he's solid everywhere except for scoring efficiency. Because he's smallish he'll need to develop an outside game.
• Hassan Whiteside, Marshall: Impressive freshman. He's averaging 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 blocks and shooting 61% in just 22 minutes per game. His turnovers are way too high and Marshall's non-con was ridiculously easy. For those reasons it's best not to usher him into the mocks just yet.
• John Fields, UNC-Wilmington: Transfer from East Carolina is off to a good start as a 4th-year junior. He's hit all the important levels in each category. Because UNCW plays one of the tougher non-cons in the country his stats may actually improve as the season progresses.
• Nikola Vecevic, USC: Emerged as the best player on a rebuilding team. He comes up a little short on both defense and efficiency, but he's also a long, tall soph getting his first real shot so he's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

emerging SFs

A good group here. Lots of seniors are included. Like with the guards this might be nothing more than players off to a hot start who will fade as soon as the games get tough. For now they've made themselves better prospects than they were.

• Landry Fields, Stanford: He's gone from a little-used freshman and sophomore, to a starter as a junior, to an all-American candidate as a senior. He's scoring often and efficiently, rebounding like a PF and playing solid defense. It's not like with other emerging players where there seems to be a flaw here or there. His game has been rock-solid in all areas so far. Definitely a player to watch.
• Quincy Pondexter, Washington: Another senior who has taken his scoring and game up to all-American levels after 3 ordinary seasons. Like Fields the improvement here is across the board. The concern is he has yet to show any ability to hit a 3-pointer. Considering he's listed at 6'6" that's going to become an issue for him.
• Marcus Morris, Kansas: He's playing on a stacked roster, with at least 3 players ahead of him in the team pecking order. But he's been a terrific scorer in the minutes he's gotten. The other numbers are nothing special, but also not so bad as to be a concern. I get the feeling he's going to be getting more minutes and having more moments as the season progresses. He's been too good to keep under wraps for too long.
• Damian Johnson, Minnesota: Johnson is one of those players who puts up great defensive numbers and is solid everywhere other than scoring. He isn't exactly lighting it up this year, but his scoring frequency has improved and he's been much more efficient. He's also a much-improved passer. His defense has been better than ever. Players like Johnson rarely seem to make it, but the fact that he's stepped up his game so much makes him worthy of a mention here. Adding a consistent outside shot would help his case immeasurably.
• Tyren Johnson, Louisiana-Lafayette: Another senior who has stepped up his game after 3 ordinary years. He's a shaky addition to this list, but I wanted 5 candidates for each position and he was the best remaining option. My suspicion is he'll start to fade once the conference games start. He was only truly dominaznt in one game against Sam Houston and he struggled against big conference LSU. That said he's off to a great start and if he keeps going at this pace, he'll get himself a look.

Emerging SGs

The big question with these prospects would be: Can they keep the efficiency going at the same or close to the same levels for the entire season. With big guys the answer is usually "no". With guards it's a little different. While the non-con schedule is definitely easier for all players, things get considerably tougher for the big guys once the conference games start. That's why there's a little more hope for this group than for the PFs and centers I'll profile in a few days. But because this is a small sample we're looking at any one of these guys is a cold streak away from oblivion.

• Lason Kromah, George Washington: This freshman is off to a terrific start. GW has been spreading the minutes pretty evenly, so Kromah is averaging only 23 minutes per game. In that time he's been the Colonial's best player, putting up numbers that project him as a lottery pick if he continues this pace for a 1000-minute season.
• DJ Kennedy, St Johns. After a couple of ordinary seasons, this junior has come alive as a scorer. His defense and passing have remained solid, but this year he's the top scorer for the Red Storm and he's doing it with good efficiency.
• Aubrey Coleman, Houston: He had been on the radar before this, but his efficiency fell way short for him to be considered too serious a prospect. So far he's improved to the point where he has to be watched. His defense and athleticism are ridiculously good, so if he can handle the scoring he'll be a real good one. One last note on Coleman: it's very impressive that he's been scoring 27 PPG without the weak A/TO that has sunk many other high-scorers.
• Elliot Williams, Memphis: Like Coleman most people knew about this guy, because he was a HS all-American who headed to Duke before transferring to Memphis last summer. He's getting the chance to be the top guy and is proving to be as good as advertised. His case makes me wonder why more prospects don't look for a situation like this where they'll have a definite opportunity to start.
  
• Klay Thompson, Washington State: It remains to be seen whether Ken Bone can match the success of Tony Bennett. One thing that's happening though is the Cougars are empasizing offense, scoring 20 more PPG than they did last year. Thompson has been the main beneficiary with 25 PPG. The other numbers are strong also. He's a soph who is the team's leading returning scorer, so that and the new system could provide the perfect situation for Thompson to explode on the scene. One weakness Thompson has already fixed is his ability to get to the line. After attempting only 31 FTs last year, he's already at 72 this year in only 10 games.
  

PGs emerging

The '10 season is in full swing now and this week is a good time to look at some players who have emerged from obscurity and put themselves on the radar as prospects. Here are 5 PGs to watch this year. All are off to a strong start. Some or all could well fade back into obscurity as the season rolls on, but all are worth watching. Players are in no particular order.

• James Florence, Mercer: This senior has spent 3 years as one of the many high-scoring, low-efficiency, undersized SGs who dominate the smaller conferences. This year he's still filling it up, but is also averaging 5.1 APG and a 1.7 A/TO. His percentages are a career high .458 overall and .355 on treys. It's not always easy to keep up such improvement over the entire season, but if Florence can do it he'll get a look at the camps.
• Nate Rohnert, Denver: Good pro PG characteristics. He's tall, at 6'5". He gets to the line frequently and scores efficiently. His numbers have improved across the board for4 seasons. Like all seniors, he faces an uphill struggle to get noticed, but if he keeps his numbers at this level he should get a look.
• Jimmer Fredette, BYU: He's emerged as BYU's best player in this, his junior year. His numbers are solid across the board, but not great or dominating. Like the others he's good enough to be on the watch list, but hardly a threat to John Wall as the nation's top PG.
• Jeremy Lin, Harvard: Another senior who has built on an already solid college career and moved himself onto the prospect map in his final season. One thing to look at with small college players is how well they do when playing against the heavyweight conferences. Lin outplayed Kemba Walker in a close loss to UConn and followed that up with a 25-point effort in an upset of BC. His passing numbers need to improve a little more, but he's also worth watching.
• Reggie Moore, Washington State: A freshman who is off to a great start. After 10 games he has strong passing numbers and is the Cougars' 2nd leading scorer. He's averaging almost 2 points per shot, which is a ridiculous number for a PG. He does have weak defensive numbers and that's always a concern, but as a freshman he has some time to get that corrected.
  

Kentucky-NC thoughts

Some thoughts on the players and how they looked. The thing that was on display in this game and all season is how much more impressive the freshmen class of Kentucky has been. These programs were 1-2 going in, but NC's freshmen simply haven't lived up to their hype yet. Kentucky's have.

Ed Davis: Solid defensive numbers, but only 6 FGAs. Good if he plans on emulating Michael Ruffin. Bad if he hopes to remain in the top 5 of the 2010 draft.

Tyler Zeller: With 7-footers, especially those at elite programs, I like to keep them in the back of my mind and track them whether they deserve such attention or not. It's just that a great 7-footer is a game-changer more than any other type of player and such players need to be given more attention than perimeter players. Zeller is starting to show some signs. Nothing too spectacular yet, but his rebounding has improved and the fact that he was effective against a strong front line is impressive. Eventually Carolina is going to have to tighten up their roster and start giving bigger minutes to fewer players. Zeller seems a likely beneficiary.

Deon Thompson: It's probably time for him to go back to being a complimentary player. Right now he's only standing in the way of Davis, Zeller, Henson and the twins.

Patrick Patterson: As solid as ever. So far he's thriving with the talented frosh and that will only boost his stock. He's still money from close in and his outside shot keeps looking better. If he keeps this up, he's a top 10 pick.

DeMarcus Cousins: Some concerns about him were realized in this game. So far he's been spectacular, but erratic. This game only saw him as erratic. The positive is he made a few nice passes that belied his poor A/TO. I still consider him the top big guy out there. His upside is just too great at this point to pass on.

John Wall: He had a high number of TOs, but looked as good as ever. What I love about Wall is he's a PG first and foremost. Even though he's the most athletic guy n the court and can score easily himself, he looks first to get his teammates involved. This trait will serve him well and makes Kentucky the championship favorite this year. Everything else about him is solid. He looks like the next great NBA PG.

Concerns about Aldrich

This is something I just wanted to throw out there and not say much more about it than it's something to watch as the season progresses. Cole Aldrich has had his struggles when playing against other big men who are considered legitimate pro prospects. That problem surfaced again in a recent game against Oakland and Keith Benson:

Benson: 7-13, 20 P, 6 R, 4 B.
Aldrich: 2-10, 4 P, 9 R, 3 B.

This was also a problem last year:

Jordan Hill: 11-23, 23, 11, 0.
Aldrich: 2-4, 10, 4, 0.

Goran Suton: 2-8, 6, 7, 0.
Aldrich: 4-9, 14, 11, 3.

Chinmelu Elonu: 2-4, 7, 6, 1.
Aldrich: 8-13, 16, 8, 2.

Craig Brackins: 11-19, 42, 14, 0.
Aldrich: 7-12, 16, 12, 2.

Leo Lyons: 4-15, 13, 1, 0.
Aldrich: 3-8, 8, 15, 5.

Leo Lyons: 7-15, 20, 6, 0.
Aldrich: 8-13, 19, 14, 2.

Dexter Pittman: 5-11, 16, 3, 3.
Aldrich: 4-9, 12, 10, 3.

Goran Suton: 8-16, 20, 9, 1.
Aldrich: 6-13, 17, 14, 4.

The good here is that Aldrich outrebounded his opponent in just about every case. The bad news is he was seriously dominated by Jordan Hill and Craig Brackens and he was fairly ordinary against Leo Lyons and Goran Suton. The more bad news is none of these opponents appear to be anything other than NBA role players at best. That is the type of players a center drafted in the top 5 will be expected to dominate for the next 10 years or so.
I do understand that the Kansas system probably doesn't allow for Aldrich to be showcased as well as he could. I also understand that in most of these cases Kansas did come away with the W and stats are always secondary to such things. But this is a concern, as is the fact that his scoring is down in both frequency and efficiency so far this year.

Wesley Johnson

He's been one of the stories so far this year. The Syracuse transfer has shown an ability to score from inside and out while putting up solid defensive numbers. He led a rout of North Carolina and he's been quickly ushered into the first round of mocks around the WWW. So the questions are: Who is he? and What do we make of him?
Wesley Johnson is a SF who transferred to Syracuse after two fairly ordinary seasons at Iowa State. He's athletic and active defensively. In two years at ISU he was an erratic and inefficient scorer and a poor passer. His two-year percentages were .496 on twos and .316 on treys. After his soph season I doubt he would have made many top 10 SF lists. In his first season at Syracuse he's been terrific so far. He's scoring more often and his efficiency is fine, at .625 and .471. He's averaging a combined 5 blocks and steals per game and is also rebounding better than ever. His passing is still weak, but not enough so that it would sink him as a prospect.
As for his standing as a prospect, it's pretty simple. He has to continue to show the improvement is real. Because he's the same age as most seniors, 22, this year is likely it for him. If he comes back next year, he brings the baggage of being a 5th-year senior with him. For that reason I just can't get too excited about him yet. It is just four games, so the percentages shouldn't be taken too seriously. Until he can do this through a Big East schedule, I'm going to put more stock in the Iowa State numbers. I will say that it's impressive that his best games were against ranked teams.

Kentucky and North Carolina

These 2 powerhouse programs boast the most impressive freshmen classes coming in this season. Both schools have stumbled out of the gate, at least relative to how dominant their supporters had hoped they would be. Both schools have a different set of issues to work through before their showdown in 2 weeks.
Kentucky: While their wins haven't been dominating blowouts, I have to say that the Wildcat freshmen impress me early on. They all have some work to do, but it looks to me like there are at least 3 solid prospects here in Wall, Cousins and Patterson. There are also Bledsoe and Orton who could emerge down the line, but seem likely to take a backseat this season. The Wildcat defense has struggled some, but that's not uncommon for freshmen-laden teams and is something I expect Calipari to fix. Wall is obviously a great offensive talent when it comes to scoring and passing. The question of where he fits as a top prospect will be how dominating his defensive numbers are. He could be anywhere from a taller Derrick Rose to Jason Kidd with a jumper. Cousins has been a terror on the boards and defensively. He's scoring at a crazy rate for a part-timer. With big guys we can't be sure until they get it done consistently against major colleges, but Cousins is the most promising freshman big man out there right now. Patterson has also been solid. The important thing with him is he's hit 3 of his first 8 3-pointers. Since those are the first 3 of his college career, that's a good start on a skill he probably needs to develop.
North Carolina: The situation here is a little more muddled at this point. Not only have none of the freshmen really stepped up so far, sophomore Ed Davis, the best returning player, has been in a supporting role early on. It's as if Deon Thompson has moved into Tyler Hansbrough's role as the top option and Ed Davis is in the Deon Thompson role of second-banana in the paint. Davis is actually 5th on the team in FG attempts, as most of the offense has run through seniors Thompson and Marcus Ginyard. I guess it's good to let the seniors shine. But it's also good to let the best players have the lead roles. There's a reason Thompson and Ginyard are still playing college ball as seniors. That reason is they're not pro prospects. Ed Davis is and some of the freshmen might be. So far the frosh have been uninspiring in low minutes. The big guys don't board well enough to merit playing them ahead of Thompson and Tyler Zeller and the guards Strickland and McDonald have struggled to get their shots to fall.
But it's still pretty early.
But it is still early.

Thoughts from the first weekend

Not much to be gleaned yet. It's just too early to know anything. In fact this could be nothing more than me keeping in practice while I figure out what this blog is going to be like. Anyway here's some stuff I noticed prospects doing this past weekend:

• Ed Davis has 19 FGA, Deon Thompson 34 after 3 games. Davis needs to become more of a scorer if he's going to live up to his top 5 hype. He'll need more looks if he's going to get there. He'll certainly need to get the majority of the looks inside. The good part is he's hit .737 on those shots.
  
• Aminu Al-Farouq is averaging 24-11 and .640 in his first 2 games. It's not uncommon for stars from the big conference to pile on with the good numbers in early non-con match-ups. That could be what's going on here. The important thing for Al-Farouq is he appears to be stepping right into the lead role on this team. This is an obvious, but still necessary step for him.
• Marshon Brooks is averaging 17 PPG in 3 games with solid defense, passing and efficiency numbers. Like Al-Farouq, Brooks is in a great position to take over as the lead dog of his team. This is a good start on that daunting task.
• LaceDarius Dunn scores 61 points with 1 assist and 3 TOs in 2 games. He could score 50 PPG, but it won't matter if he doesn't learn to pass the ball once in awhile.
• Rotnei Clarke scores 51 points. We'll wait a few games on this guy, but it's cool to look at his stats and see that he's currently scoring 2.43 points per shot.
  

Point Guards

The theory would be that when what looks like a legendary class of PGs heads for the pros, there are going to be slim pickings left among the returning group. That's certainly the case for the 2010 returnees. Honestly, no player stands out as a good prospect among the returning NCAA PGs. I don't see any, with the possible exception of Walker, that I could even talk myself into at this point. No wonder we're all so excited for the debut of John Wall.

1. Kemba Walker, Connecticut: He probably was UConn's best PG last year, but because Price had played the position forever Walker had to wait in the wings. He put up some nice numbers for a combo. He needs to come in and prove he can be the full-time PG and he needs to start hitting treys more consistently. Even then he's undersized, but he's still the best of the bunch.
2. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland: His numbers are OK, but hardly the stuff lottery picks are made of. Mainly he has to become a more efficient scorer. His FG pct. was only .405 last year and he's never been a good 3-point shooter. If he can get his 3-point pct. up to .350 and his 2-point pct. to .500 while keeping everything else constant, he's a legit 1st-rounder.
3. Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga: He played a lot of PG for the first time in the 2nd-half of last season and fared pretty well. All his other numbers are solid, so he should be fine if he can handle it full time. His size is a concern. At 224 lbs I wonder if quickness will be a problem.
4. Talor Battle, Penn State: Not a bad little player. He needs to improve his percentages and he'll be right there as a prospect. Best pure PG in the big 10.
5. Devan Downey, South Carolina: I'd like to see him become more of a pass-first PG and less of a mad bomber. Or I'd at least like to see his scoring be done a little more efficiently. Of the 2 small guys on this list I like him a tad better than Randle because he's a better passer and defender. Randle is a better scorer.
   
6. Jerome Randle, California: He'll never be a full time NBA PG, but he's such a good scorer that I could see him developing into a decent bench guy. That's enough for 6th on this list.
   
7. Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas: He has a long way to go. Other than scoring efficiency, he comes up short everywhere. Collins was a better player last year, so it seems unlikely that Taylor will supplant him as PG. In addition frosh phenom Xavier Henry could push Taylor even further down in the Jayhawk pecking order. His opportunity may not happen until next year. As a tangent, I wonder why a player like Taylor would chose a program like Kansas, where competition for PT will be fierce. Why wouldn't he go to school where he would be handed the PG job out of the gate and have a better chance to grow into a star without getting caught in a numbers game?
   
8. Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech: He was going was OK last year, until a horrific shooting slump in March dumped his already marginal numbers in the toilet. He seems capable of getting back to where he was, which is a marginal prospect.
9. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State: Right now I'm struggling to find players. Lucas is worth mentioning, because he has some buzz elsewhere and he plays for a national power. His numbers are terrible though. Shoots less than .400 and his RSB40 is 4.0. In the mold of fellow Spartan Mateen Cleaves, he's a good college player.
   
10. Jon Scheyer, Duke: I mention Scheyer because I'm curious to see how he'll handle being a full-time PG. He's never been a high-assist guy, but his TOs have been low and he's been a very efficient scorer throughout his career, despite some low percentages. He's always been a solid defender too.
    

Shooting Guards

When I rate players the main tool I use is statistical benchmarks. Players need to reach specific levels in specific statistical categories, otherwise the red flags start to come out. Most of these aren't hard and fast benchmarks, but more of a guideline. The one case where the benchmark seems like a make-or-beak deal for a prospect is SGs scoring at least 20.0 P40. Other things matter with SGs, but if they don't hit 20.0 P40, they simply don't make much of an impact in the NBA. There have been some college SGs out there who have been great all-around players, DJ Strawberry and Mark Tyndale to name a couple, who came in with a sub 20 P40 and barely made a ripple in the NBA. So this is an extremely important number for a player to reach. The other thing that seems to becoming more important for SGs every year is the ability to hit a 3-pointer. Because the 3-pointer has become a much bigger part of the NBA game in general, it seems that the marginal prospect who can't hit the shot consistently just won't even get a look. Another trend I've noticed in recent years with SGs is that if they don't make a name for themselves as a freshman or soph, they're going to be up against it. Marcus Thornton is a good example of this from last year.
This year's class isn't as impressive as the last couple, though a player or two always seems to step up. The problem is the players who have shown they can score--Anderson, Dunn, Harris and Hazzell--are either too inefficient or TO-prone. The players who have solid all-around games--Turner, Brooks, Higgins, Freeman and Green--need to step up their scoring. As with all the groups, the salvation could be the freshmen.

1. Evan Turner, Ohio State: The only returning player in this group who seems like he has the stuff to be a star. He has good size, is a solid passer and has an all-around game to die for. His scoring has been solid enough, but could stand to improve. Turner seems to have more the mentality of a PG or SF, in that he sometimes has a pass-first mentality. That seems unlikely to change this year, as Turner seems set to handle most of the PG duties again.
2. James Anderson, Oklahoma State: Started to come on and make a name for himself in the 2nd half of last season. This year he's the only one of the Cowboy's top 3 scorers from last year returning, so he could really bust out as a big time scorer. His TOs were a little too high last year, but that's the only weakness I see and it's something that's usually corrected with experience.
   
3. Manny Harris, Michigan: His mission this year is pretty simple. He needs to get his shot to fall more consistently from both inside and out. I get the feeling that if another offensive threat or two emerged on his team this task could be accomplished. Otherwise he's a terrific player who does many things well.
4. Paul George, Fresno State: See the earlier post for a detailed take on George. He needs to score more often and more efficiently.
   
5. Willie Warren, Oklahoma: He has a ways to go, despite the hype. His biggest issue is weak defensive numbers. His 4.2 RSB40 just isn't going to cut it. Generally SG prospects need to be at 7.0 and that's the base. Unlike scoring or passing, this historically hasn't been a skill that a player develops. At least not from the low number Warren is at now. Warren also needs to prove he can be a big time scorer. He looks like he has the skills to get that done, but until he actually does it I can't be totally sure.
   
6. Marshon Brooks, Providence: A sleeper to emerge. Providence is returning only 4 players from last years' roster and Brooks seems ready to move into the main role. He's a strong defender, but needs to step his offensive game up a notch. Mainly his 3-point shot needs to improve. Of course if one or more of the Friars' large freshmen contingent develops rapidly, Brooks could easily get lost in the shuffle, because he's not a returning star like some of the others here.
   
7. Cory Higgins, Colorado: His non-scoring numbers are solid across the board. He scored 19.7 P40 as a soph last year, so he's close there too. The main thing to watch with a player like this is whether he can crank up the scoring enough to get noticed and, if he does, can he keep his efficiency high and TOs low with the extra load.
8. LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor: A terrific scorer from both inside and out who should get even more opportunities now that Jerrels and Rogers have moved on. His pressing issue is improving his passing. His A/TO was 0.34 last year, which would be a red flag for a any player, let alone a guard. He went through a stretch of 12 games without being credited with an assist. Part of that could have been his team circumstance. Jerrells, Carter and Dugat were all pretty good at distributing the ball and Dunn was very good at putting it in the basket. Still, 0.34 is really bad. Simply put, if he can fix that he's a pretty solid prospect. It's a big mountain to climb though.
   
9. Terrico White, Mississippi: White checked in with a decent freshman year and will be counted on more this year with David Huertas having left the team. His numbers come up a little short on everything except passing, so his task will be to become a more efficient scorer and a better defender while increasing his scoring load. It's a big task and if he can get it done, he'll be the lottery pick some already think he is.
   
10. Dominique Jones, South Florida: Good college player. He's close, but needs to score a little bit more and with better efficiency.
    

Small Forwards

The main thing players in this group need to do is up their scoring. They're all solid enough on the passing, rebounding and defensive end of things. They're also efficient enough as scorers. A good SF prospect needs to get the scoring average up to at least 18.0 P40, while maintaining some level of efficiency. It might seem like an easy step, but it really isn't. Last year Tyler Smith was in what looked like a perfect position to bust out as a star. But even though his scoring increased, his efficiency fell off dramatically and his play as the Vol's main guy raised more doubts than anything about his ability to make the jump. That's where man of the players listed here are going into 2009-10. This is potentially a pretty solid group. Like the other ones, best to just sit and watch things develop.

1. Kyle Singler, Duke: Possible college POY. His situation seems perfect for him to bust out this year. Singler was at a level last year where all his prospect numbers were strong. This year he could expand on that even more as he's set to play the perimeter more, after a year of basically playing PF. Of course this could also expose him as nothing more than an undersized PF, but I doubt that will happen. The main reason is SF seems like more his natural position. He's a good passer and a decent, if streaky, outside shooter. He's also already where he needs to be at every stat level as a prospect, so it seems highly unlikely that his logging more time at his natural position would have a negative impact on his numbers.
   
2. Robbie Hummel, Purdue: A very solid and unappreciated prospect. Hummel does everything well. Last year he was injured for part of the year and fell a tad short of his great freshman year numbers. He did pick things up at the end of the year though, leading Purdue to the Big 10 championship. He's one of the players who need to step up his scoring. His P40 was at 16.0 as a freshman and 17.3 last year. Problem with his situation is the Boilers return every main player from last year. A shakeup in the scoring hierarchy of a successful team seems unlikely, but he should be able to nudge it up another point or so.
   
3. Damian Saunders, Duquense: Brings monster defensive numbers, solid passing, efficient scoring inside and a decent ability to hit the three-pointer. Now he just needs to up his P40 from 14.7 to 20+. He might be able to do it. The Dukes leading scorer from last year, Aaron Jackson, is gone and Sanders seems like the likely beneficiary of his departure considering his place as the team's 2nd option and his potential scoring prowess.
4. Devin Ebanks, West Virginia: This is a nod to his ability as much as anything. Ebanks has a nice all-around game and is a great athlete, but falls way short as a scorer so far. He hasn't had the opportunity to be the main guy yet, but he also hasn't been very efficient with his chances, especially from the outside. Still, I prefer a young player like this who has the passing and defensive part of the game down, as opposed to a Luke Babbitt who is a decent enough scorer with weak defensive numbers. It seems scoring is a skill that's easier to develop. Playing on a loaded roster doesn't help his cause, but if he has the talent it should rise to the top eventually.
5. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU: He's one of those guys who is in the mix, but the more I look at him the harder he is to ignore. He's not as hyped as some other players, but he's the only player on this list other than Singler who has proven he can score with both the necessary frequency and efficiency and do all the other necessary things to be considered a decent prospect. As a senior on a team that lost their leading scorer, he appears set to step into that role this year. Everything looks good for Tasmin Mitchell in 2009-10.
   
6. Tyler Smith, Tennessee: I liked him a lot more as a sophomore than I did last year. Smith was given an opportunity to be the main guy last year and his efficiency took a big hit. He needs to push his FG pct. back over .500 like it was his soph year while continuing to score 20 P40. It wouldn't hurt if he also got his defensive numbers back to where they were his soph season too. He's talented, so there's a chance he can get back to where he was.
   
7. Gordon Hayward, Butler: Another soph who needs more scoring opportunities, he seems unlikely to get those on this team where balanced scoring and a disciplined attack has been a big part of their success. Hayward is a player though and I hope he's unleashed every now and then.
8. Luke Babbitt, Nevada: Babbitt is a scorer and that's good. He needs to be more efficient, but that should happen with time. The problem is he has some of the weakest defensive numbers of any player on this list and that doesn't bode well for him as a prospect. Because he's only going into his soph season we can cut him a little slack. But this s something he needs to fix before he's a serious prospect.
9. Chris Singleton, Florida State: Singleton has some ability, but also has a long way to go. With the Seminoles starting to stockpile a nice core of talent, Singleton's college ceiling seems almost destine to become nothing more than a defensive stopper on a very good team. He's got enough going for him, including youth and athleticism, but the odds seem stacked against him at this point.
   
10. Kevin Coble, Northwestern: A solid, efficient scorer and the possibly the best passer of all the players listed. He's a poor rebounder and his defensive numbers are barely there, so there biggest concern with him is whether he's strong enough for the next level.
    

Power Forwards

I don't comment on freshmen until they play, but the feeling here is that the likes of Cousins and Favors will be the story at PF in 2010. There's also Montiejunas and Henson who might be he 2 best of the bunch, but also might both be better suited to SF. But this list is the top 10 of returning NCAA players. It's a group of talented players who either need to step up part of their game or show they can excel as the main guy playing big minutes. This list will certainly be jumbled by season's end. All players are pretty close in potential going into the season, but while some will certainly excel, other will fade into obscurity. By March I expect 3-5 of these players to be looking like solid 1st round picks, but right now it's impossible to say which ones will make the jump. This is merely the order I would put them in going into the season.

1. Ed Davis, North Carolina: There are some high expectations here, but he has a ways to go. He's light for a PF, 215 lbs, and he needs to improve his scoring frequency and efficiency a lot before he's a lottery pick. He's solid defensively and on the boards, which is a good start. Time will tell if his team situation will help or hurt. NC's frosh class is said to be pretty special, and upperclassmen can get lost in the shuffle in such situations. Still he looks like the best of this group going in.
2. Terrence Jennings, Louisville: Seems like a good candidate to bust out. He played low minutes last year, but has great length, blocks shots as well as any player in the nation and is going to get an opportunity to play. There are going to be a ton of stats there for the taking in Louisville with Williams and Clark gone. Jennings is the one Cardinal whose per minute numbers suggest he's ready to seize this opportunity.
3. Trevor Booker, Clemson: He doesn't get the hype of other returning players and he might be too short, listed at 6'7". But there's no returning PF with better prospect numbers across the board. He also strikes me as a very smart player, like Ryan Gomes, who will find a way to make it at the next level.
   
4. Pat Patterson, Kentucky: His situation is a little shaky. He's been more of a PF and a pretty good one. Kentucky is bringing a couple of big guys and Patterson may be asked to be more of a SF at times. This is of course a double-edged thing. Should he excel and develop a decent outside shot, he'll be that much more valuable. Should he struggle, he'll likely fall off the map as a prospect while Wall, Favors and the rest of Coach Cal's freshmen class take over.
   
5. JaMychal Green, Alabama: He's still raw, but he started to pick his game up as the year progressed. The rebounding and defense are already solid, he just needs to smooth out the rough edges in his game and he'll be right there.
6. Aminu Al-Farouq, Wake Forest: He's listed as a SF on some lists and he may yet prove to be a good one. I see him as more of a PF right now. No player has a better situation going in. He's going to get an opportunity to excel with Teague and Johnson being gone. He has a veteran pass-first PG in Smith running the offense and some big guys in MacFarland and Woods to do the dirty work. I have him this low because he's on the small side and his defensive numbers don't exactly wow me, but a big jump in production wouldn't surprise me at all.
   
7. Drew Gordon, UCLA: Like Davis, Jennings and Green he's a soph who flashed some nice potential in limited minutes last year. He should get a chance to shine this year. He's a decent inside scorer and rebounder. His defensive numbers are weak and he's prone to TOs and fouls.
   
8. Justin Vanardo, Mississippi State: He's a better player than some of the younger guys right now, but as a senior he doesn't have the upside so I have him a little lower. He looks like he has the stuff to become a decent energy guy of the bench.
   
9. Craig Brackens, Iowa State: Going into his junior year the only thing he does well enough is rebound, which he's pretty good at. The fact that he also has a decent outside shot helps his cause too. But he hits barely over half his shots and his defensive numbers are weak. He's still pretty young, but has lots of work to do before he's much of a prospect.
10. Michael Washington, Arkansas: A player who meets all the minimum requirements for a PF prospect. Not a great prospect, but he has enough talent that he could stick round the league awhile as a reserve banger. Biggest concern is he's a year older than most seniors and that's often a red flag.

The centers

It's too early to call this a good class of centers, though it already looks epic compared to last year. I will say that there are some interesting players out there who should make watching the bigs this year a tad more interesting. They're in three groups at this point. There's the projects, players who have flashed some great raw ability, but need to fix some things in their games. Then we have the more polished players who look good, but may never be more than NBA reserves. And at the top is Cole Aldrich, who going in is the only sure thing. This is returning centers only, as I don't comment on players who have yet to log court time at the NCAA level. The freshmen will be mixed in during the season. Here's a very rough, certain to change a lot during the season, order of how I like them going in:

1. Cole Aldrich, Kansas: He's very solid. Does everything well enough that no team should be concerned about him becoming a bust. Because last year was his first full season, improvement should be expected this year. He's probably a tad better than his numbers show, because the Jayhawk offense has always been perimeter-oriented, so he's never gotten the looks others may have. Unless he falls apart he seems like a lock for the top 5 and could even go #1.
2. Solomon Alabi, Florida State: He needs to improve, especially the scoring, rebounding and turnovers. He is 7'1" and he can block shots. That's a good start for any center prospect.
   
3. Greg Monroe, Georgetown: He doesn't rebound or block shots well enough and usually that's a deal-killer. But Monroe is young enough to get better and he does so many other things well, that I don't feel it's wrong to put him here.
   
4. Jerome Jordan, Tulsa: Solid enough across the board that expecting him to become a decent reserve isn't out of line.
   
5. Dexter Pittman, Texas: He's almost impossible to stop inside and is a solid rebounder. The downside is he's overweight, plays low minutes and has been terrible defensively.
6. Cruz Daniels, High Point: I like him the best of all the small college guys. None of them really stand out, but there are a few that merit watching. Daniels doesn't score much, but he blocks shots more frequently than any player here, rebounds well and hits over 63% of the shots he takes. His weight is listed at 220, so he needs to do some work there also.
7. Keith Benson, Oakland: Benson does everything well enough, but as a small college player I'd like to see him be a little more dominant. I'm a little concerned his production will drop off, because the Golden Grizz return PF Derick Nelson this year, their top rebounder in 2007 and 2008. Nelson missed 2009 with an injury when Benson emerged.
   
8. AJ Ogilvy, Vanderbilt: His numbers have always been weak, but there was an uptick across the board last year. Specifically he needs to block more shots and improve his efficiency on the offensive end.
9. Larry Sanders, VCU: He's smallish and very raw on offense, but he can block shots with the best of them and he's a solid rebounder.
   
10. Brian Zoubek, Duke: I consider him a sleeper to emerge this year. He's shown some decent ability as a 3-year part-timer. As a senior he might suddenly kick up his game to the point where he has to be kept on the court. It doesn't help that he plays for a program thta has pretty much embraced smallball.
    

Paul George

Been awhile. I plan on getting back into things a little more as the season starts. Of course I had planned to toss some content out over the summer, but that just didn't happen. We'll see how this goes.
I follow the two big draft sites, NBADraft.net and Draft Express, mainly for their mocks. Both sites have excellent content, but I like following the mocks because it gives a quick snapshot to what the scouts are probably thinking at this time. In general the two sites are pretty close on the top players and have been for the few years I've followed each site. This year there's one difference. NBADraft.net has had Fresno St. swingman Paul George consistently in the top 10, while Draft Express barely mentions him and has him as their 46th ranked sophomore. So I thought George would be a good guy to look at starting this season off. There's obviously some disagreement among the experts on this guy. I'm going to go by the numbers to see how he stacks up. Here's the Paul George profile. The numbers are from 2008-09, hs freshman year.:

• Size: 6'8 210 according to ESPN. The draft sites have him at 6'7" 185, which I suspect are his numbers from last year. That's good for an SG, tall and sinewy. He seems to have gotten bigger since his frosh year and if it's due to working out, that's a good thing.
• Scoring: P40: 16.7, FG pct: .470, 2-pt pct: .486, 3-pt pct: .447. This is a weak spot for him and something that has to change if he expects to be drafted in the lottery. SGs who can't score both often and efficiently never make it as anything more than a reserve. Specifically his P40 and 2-pt pct. need to improve to at least 20.0 and .500.
  
• Defense: RSB40: 10.5. George is a potentially great defender, considering his size and the fact that his stellar 10.5 RSB40.
  
• Passing: Assists are on the low side and his A/TO is a weak 0.8. Right now I wouldn't call this a problem, but I will say that it wouldn't hurt if he could improve this number.
• Team situation: He was the Bulldog's 2nd-leading scorer last year, behind PF Sylvester Seay. Seay returns this year as a 5th-year senior. The team is loaded with swingmen, so there could be competition for the ball. Unless George comes to camp and shows dominant scoring skills, one would guess that this year's Bulldogs will resemble last year's bunch. That's a balanced-scoring attack where Paul George improves his scoring modestly to about 18.0 P40.

Right now it's tough for me to call Paul George a likely lottery pick. He's more like a player to watch. He has good size, plays good defense and he can drill the trey. He might break out this year, but I've watched players like Antonio Anderson, Eddie Basden and Geoff McDermott spend 4 years in college flashing a great all-around game sans the scoring. Such players rarely make a ripple in the NBA. Paul George needs to start scoring more often and scoring more efficiently on the 2-pointers if he's going to live up to NBAdraft.net's high opinion of him.

The summer leagues

Don't matter and tell us very little. Enjoy them if you wish, but it's rookies and 2nd-year players against scrubs and never-will-bes. Competition that's about as weak as what they faced in college. The games have no limits on fouls and are played more to acclimate rookies to a system than anything.
In 2006, Randy Foye was the summer league star. In 2007 it was Marco Bellinelli. In 2008, not only was Jerryd Bayless unstoppable, Derrick Rose was disappointing. It takes rookies awhile to adjust to the league anyways. They can't be expect to be the player they'll eventually become in 6 games with a team that will be radically different when the season starts.
Enjoy the games as a fan, but don't read too much into them.

The Suns

They sure like to draft brothers of great players.

Danny Green to Cavs

This could be a steal. Green is the same type of player as Terrence Williams. That "new prototype" I mentioned. The guy who comes in with the combination of 3-point shooting and great defense. This type fits in perfectly with a superstar, because his offense is effective, but not the least bit intrusive on that superstar. Vitale predicted a San Antonio-Cleveland finals in 2010 during the telecast. I see little reason to doubt that.

Blair to the Spurs

The Spurs are notorious for trading their picks, so don't put this down as a sure thing yet. If they keep Blair, they've now upgraded from Bowen to Jefferson and added a great rebounder to their bench. With Ginobili coming back at full health, the Spurs have retooled themselves into a championship favorite. Seriously, how does this happen? Why are players who will never amount to anything like Pendergraph and Cunningham get drafted so a Blair can slide to the Spurs? I guess ths is another reminder of why the Spurs are 4-time champs.

Blair

I'm not going to dwell on this too much, because I probably already have. But drafting Jeff Pendergraph ahead of Dejuan Blair is just silly.

I need a walk

The Blonde wants to take a walk down to the local market for some vitamin water. My Bulls got James Johnson and Taj Gibson. There must be something wrong with Blair's knees. My hope as a fan is these players are part of an eventual deal for Chris Bosh.

Best remaining:

Blair
Calathes
Marcus Thornton
Aaron Jackson
Wayne Ellington

Presti

If it's true that he gets out of this draft with Harden, Mullens and the Suns' #1 next year he's clearly the genius he was rumored to be. Too bad it won't happen in Seattle, but this team is going to be great.

Blazers

This is a team that has dominated the draft for the last few years. I'm a fairly recent resident of Oregon after moving there from Chicago a few years ago. The Blazers have become my second team and they're a great second team to have. I was hoping Lawson would slide to them, but they ended up taking Klaver who's obviously a future. The thing that concerns me about the Blazers is the Turkoglu rumors. This is not a player the Blazers need and he's be overpriced after his nice series against Cleveland. What the Blazers need is for Oden to get well and play like the elite center he appeared to be coming out of Ohio State.

10-20 thoughts

• Tyler Hansbrough?At #13? Are you effing kidding me? With Dejuan Blair still on the board?
  
• Chicago and Philly both get points for grabbing a player who slid. In both cases it's a great fit. Chicago needed a good combo PF. Phillie needed a PG of the future. That said, Philly should have grabbed Lawson and handed him the job.
  
• Some team is going to get a late steal in Blair.
• That veggie pizza I just made and ate was good, but with a few tweaks will be great. It was a new recipe and the mix was a little off.
  
• Terrence Williams is about as wild a wild card as I've ever seen. He doesn't project very well, but he fits the prototype of a new type of NBA player. That's a guy who can hit the trey and defend. Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell and now Mikael Pietrus. There's no player from this draft whose career I'm more anxious to watch transpire.
  
• Austin Daye could remake Joe Dumars' rep. He's a high upside/high risk type. There are some hints at greatness, but there are strength, toughness and focus issues that he needs to get right.
• Ty Lawson to Denver. Minnesota probably dealt him so he wouldn't embarass Flynn. Good for Denver. They got the best PG in the draft. He and Anthony should set the Nuggets up as a contender for years to come.
• Henderson and Teague were reaches.
  

Brandon Jennings

The Bucks seem to be in love with the combine process and this pick is no exception to that. They drafted workout wonder Alexander last year and Jennings this year.
Jennings is a tough call. Since his stats were made in Europe, they're hard to compare to NCAA stats. His Euro stats weren't good. The problem is, Ty Lawson was there on the board and the Bucks took a pass on him for a project.
That's 10 picks in and I'm going to take a little break. The news so far is so many guards have gone. That's a rare thing and a testament to the strength of the perimeter players and the weakness of the inside players. Best 5 remaining:

Lawson
Blair
Mullens
James Johnson
Terrence Williams

Demar Derozan

Watching how things have been in Toronto since Colangelo took over, I can't help but wonder if his rep was made by Mike D'Antoni. I was never much impressed by him until that Phoenix team took off. After watching him draft an obvious role player in Bargnini #1 and rule a Toronto team that's stuck in mediocrity, I have doubts about him again.
This is a reach. Derozan isn't ready and may never be.

Jordan Hill

Does the NBA realize that the NY focus that they have always had kind of annoys the rest of the country? Especially since the local franchise has had such a mediocre history.
I don't like this pick. They should have taken Lawson. Hill just isn't all that good. I read a rumor that D'Antoni sees Hill as another Amare. I'll give a sarcastic, "Good luck with that." before adding that Donnie Walsh is a guy with a pretty strong history and "Good luck with that." was how most people including myself felt when Phoenix signed Steve Nash 5 years ago. That down, I see Hill as nothing more than a journeyman.
This seemingly takes the Knicks out of any Rubio/Flynn trade scenarios.

Stephen Curry

Great place for Curry. He'll fit well next to Ellis. This is a team of mad bombers, so adding another isn't a bad thing. The Warriors are like the Clippers. This is a talented bunch and if they get an offseason free of injuries, contract troubles and motorbike accidents they'll be a player in the west, at least as far as getting into the playoffs.
Jordan is the slider.

Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn

I like the deal the Timberwolves made. Miller wasn't working with them and Foye just isn't that good. They don't need a reminder that Brandon Roy was once one of them. They also did it in a draft where they can pretty add a potentially great backcourt.
I get the feeling that in 5 years at least one of the top four teams is going to look very silly for having passed on Rubio. Jonny Flynn? Sheesh! Sounds to me like someone is going to be traded. Stay tuned here.
Flynn might be the most overrated player in the draft. No Jay Bilas, he wasn't an improved perimeter shooter. As for the trade, perhaps they'll toss Flynn or Rubio and another draft pick to Sacto for Evans. That would make sense for both teams at this point. I can't believe Minnesota will go at it with 2 pure PGs.

James Harden and Tyreke Evans

I think the Thunder settled on Harden a while back. The Rubio talk was probably angling for a swap of picks and picking up a few more assets. This is a great place for Harden. His diverse game will be a great complement to Kevin Durant. Another great thing is he's going into a place as a member of the supporting cast. Just makes for an easier transition.
The Thunder got another boost when Phoenix gave away Shaq. Since they own the Suns' #1 pick in 2010, likely improvement next year won't keep them from being players in the lottery.
Evans to Sacto is interesting. Tells me that Geoff Petrie might be getting it back. I'm not sure about the immediate fit though. They're talking about Evans as a PG, but I see him as more of a SG. I guess we'll see how this plays out. I will say this, if I had to take one player from this draft to build around it probably would have been Evans. He's not going to the great situation like Harden though. I'm just glad he didn't slide. He's way too good a player for that.

Hasheem Thabeet

I endorse this pick also. I think Evans is the BA(best available) here, but the Grizz have a couple of promising guards in place. Adding another might create a mess. Better to add a big guy who can step in and give this young, erratic team some defense.

Blake Griffin

This is the right choice. I don't feel Griffin is definitely the best player in the draft. A case could be made for Rubio, Evans or Thabeet. But the Clipps could use a solid citizen like Griffin as a building block. A couple of things to add. First, there is no logjam in the Clipper frontcourt. Just a log named Zach. Second is this team isn't that far from the playoffs. The way the West is now, the addition of a Griffin and a return to form by Baron Davis could make this group pretty formidable with the supproting cast they have in place. Now the fun starts.

Blogging the draft

I'm going to try this. I'm not exactly hard-wired for this type of thing though. I'm a little slow-witted and I always need 10-20 rewrites before I get something I like. That said, the idea of live-blogging something like this has always intrigued me. The strange thing is I'm likely going to be blogging to myself. That gives it an edge of comedy, tragedy and is really kind of pathetic. But David Stern is at the podium and we're ready to go.

Official Measurement thoughts

That's the measurements that are official. The thoughts are just mine. The measurements have been released. And while I'm linking to them, I'm also going to mention that Draft Express is by far the best draft resource on the web. They have far more statistical information than anyone. They do great analysis and keep things very much up to date.
On the measurements, I try not to get too up or down over them. If a player can't rebound or score inside, the fact that his 7'3" wingspan just became public knowledge hardly makes him better prospect. They're more useful to scouts than they are to someone like me, but they're part of the information we have on each prospect so they have to be considered. Here are things that caught my eye:

• Blake Griffin has relatively short arms. This could be a big deal, as his defense has been soft. He's been the concensus top pick, but has never carried a can't-miss label. This is something that could get the Clipps to give players like Rubio or Thabeet another look.
• Taj Gibson may have moved himself into round one. His numbers have always been pretty strong anyways and now he has that 7'4" wingspan to brag about. With bigs being so scarce, I'm sure some team will see fit to add his long, shot-blocking body to their mix.
• Tyreke Evans and James Harden have a chance to be freakishly good NBA players. Both have posted strong numbers and both stand 6'4" with a wingspan of around 6'11". Players with dimensions like this who put up great numbers are ones to watch.
• Jeff Adrien has put himself back into the discussion. Maybe just the 2nd round discussion, but a 7'2" wingspan does get some attention.
• There are no wories about Dejuan Blair. He's 6'6" in shoes with arms that are 7'2". With the skills he's shown that's big enough.
• Other players who would seem to be helped by this information Austin Daye, Earl Clark, James Johnson, Damion James, Derrick Brown and Gerald Henderson.
• I don't see where any player would be terribly hurt by any of this. Ty Lawson possibly, but he's a PG and measurements mean less there. Most of the big guys look to be big enough and none of the small players.
  

The PG sweepstakes

After Blake Griffin goes to the Clippers the PGs will quickly start falling off the board. There could be as many as 5 PGs go in the top 10. Rubio, Jennings, Flynn, Curry, Holiday and Lawson have all been mentioned in recent mocks as possibilities. Here's a look at each situation in the top 10:

• LA Clippers: Would happen only if the Clippers traded down and it would likely only be Rubio. Going here would mean hoping they're able to pull off a Baron Davis trade then hoping the league's worst franchise can get their act together. Not a real good place to be.
• Memphis: There's a young PG on he roster in Conley and there's also SG OJ Mayo who seems to think he's a PG. This is also an organization that's been poorly run. Again, a prospect's best hope would be that the Grizz take a pass on him.
• Oklahoma City: Westbrook is a strong incumbent, but that's the only real drawback. This is a talented, young team that seems to have a pretty strong future.
  
• Sacramento: Despite their weak season, this wouldn't be a terrible destination. Any player going here would be likely to start immediately and be given time to grow. They may be down now, but have a smart GM and aggressive owners who should get that corrected.
• Washington: Any PG coming here would be sharing the playmaking with Arenas. That makes it seem like it might be a better place for a passing SG like Harden or Evans. Again best to hope the Wiz look elsewhere.
  
• Minnesota: The job is open and that's a good thing. They have some good big guys, which also makes a PGs' job easier. The problem is they have the same management in place that bungled the Garnett era, so team success isfar from being a given here.
  
• Golden State: Good spot. This is a good, young team that plays in a fast-paced offense. There would be some sharing of the duties with Ellis, but Baron Davis excelled in such a role so that shouldn't be a big deal.
• New York: Pretty much the top destination for any young PG. Whoever gets drafted, and they reportedly have eyes for Curry, is going to be given the role that made Steve Nash an MVP. Playing for D'Antoni should be the dream of any young PG. The player who lands here will be an immediate ROY candidate.
• Toronto: There's a nice offense to run, but they have a pretty good PG in place in Calderon. So this job will be that of a reserve.
• Milwaukee: Since Sessions appears to be leaving, the Bucks will be looking for a replacement. PGs have done well under Skiles, so this is probably a good place to go. Probably 2nd to NY in best team to go to of the top 10 spots.
  

Calathes to Greece

This is sort of a bummer, at least for American basketball fans. This is one player I was really looking forward to watching play. From reading various reports it sounds as if Calathes might be trying to work the system a little. That instead of heading back to Florida he'll bide his time in Greece and negotiate with select NBA teams he wants to play for. Of course this team of his choosing would have to be in a position to draft him either this year or next, but if he makes it clear that he'll only play and work out for certain teams he should be able to land with a team of his choice. Or at least avoid a team he wants nothing to do with. Since few teams will waste a draft pick on a player they know won't be playing for them, this could be a smart move. If this is true, what Calathes is doing is playing his junior season for cash overseas against a slightly higher level of competition. Again this is a smart move. He has little to prove at Florida. Cripes, if that season he just had isn't going to impress the scouts there's little else he can do that will.
This is something the NBA and NCAA should get used to. Right now the NBA and NCAA are squeezing their players. They have them on a rookie pay scale and have placed an age limit on entrance into the league. Next year the NCAA will impose a much shorter time frame on players deciding for the draft. The NBA is rumored to be thinking about cranking the age limit up to 20. And, oh yes, the NCAA still doesn't pay players for their services. The Associations are perfectly within their rights doing these things, but they have to remember that every action has a reaction. In this case the reaction is starting to be players going overseas to play for cash.

Wall to Kentucky

Well that happened quickly. By "that" I mean John Calipari getting the Wildcats back to the top of the college basketball heap. I watched John Wall in a few post season all-star games and he was clearly the best player on the court every time I watched. He's a big PG who runs an offense like a seasoned pro. He seemed more focused on setting up teammates than scoring, which is one of the best things any PG can do. Obviously I'm going to wait until I get some NCAA stats before I call him the next big thing, but this is clearly a great thing for Kentucky.
It also could be a great thing for Wall who is going to play for the same coach who made Derrick Rose the top pick in the draft after his freshman season. Add him to Pat Patterson and what was possibly already the top recruiting class and it's easy to see Kentucky as the championship favorite going into the season.

Tisdale and Griffin

Wayman Tisdale passed recently. He represented all that was good about college basketball. He was a top flight star who stayed in state to play ball. He was as successful off the court as a musician as he was on it. He remained a vocal, high-profile supporter of Oklahoma athletics. A very impressive man who passed on way too young in life.
As a prospect back in the '85 draft, Tisdale was somewhat overhyped. He went 2nd after Pat Ewing. At the time this seemed like a good pick, but Tisdale never dominated like many thought he mght and his NBA career was somewhat disappointing. No matter that his career numbers are very similar to Xavier McDaniel's who went 4th in the same draft and never had the bust label placed on him. But with Chris Mullin, Detlef Schrempf, Charles Oakley and Karl Malone all coming off the board after Tisdale, it's clear the Pacers would have been up for a redraft had Doc Brown and his DeLorean shown up at their door.
This brings us to the current Okla PF phenom and certain top draft pick, Blake Griffin. Griffin wears the same #23 as Tisdale and plays the same position. Both are primarily scorers and rebounders with mediocre defensive numbers. Both stayed in state to play ball. Griffin is also a much better prospect than Tisdale was at this point in their careers. Griffin's teams don't play at the fast pace that the Sooners of Billy Tubbs did, which was one factor in Tisdale--and Stacey King 4 years later-- being a little more hyped than he deserved. Griffin is also a higher percentage shoter and much better rebounder. So I don't think we're looking at any Oklahoma PF jinx with Griffin.

What happens if the Timberwolves win the lottery?

Would the T'wolves draft Blake Griffin #1 or trade the pick? The reason I ask this is the T'wolves already employ a few productive, but weak defensively, PFs. That's pretty much their entire frontline. Jefferson, Love, Smith and Gomes all fit this profile. I mean every team has several smallish PFs, but the T'wolves two most valuable players, Love and Jefferson, play basically the same role as Griffin. Wouldn't it make more sense for them to flip picks with say OKC for a few extra draft picks down the road? Then they could take a Thabeet, Rubio or Harden and fill a need with their own pick. Just wonderin'. Or perhaps I'm just hoping for a little drama to be injected into ths draft.

The bigs get thinner

The past few days saw an already depleted draft get thinner as Pat Patterson, Jarvis Vanardo and Michael Washington all returned to college. While this should make the 2010 draft that much more awesome, it means any team looking for cheap, immediate help inside this summer best scour the D-leagues.
The most interesting decision is that of Patterson. Things are going to change next year at Kentucky. It's not a question of whether Calipari gets them back to elite level, it's when. With 2 of the nation's top big men in Cousins and Orton coming in, Patterson should get more time on the perimeter. This past season he was the Wildcats only inside player and he did a solid job, hitting over 60% of his shots and posting strong rebounding numbers. Next year he should have some chance to flash some perimeter skills. This is probably necessary for him, because he's on the small side for a PF. The bad side of this situation for Patterson is he could find himself buried in the wave of talent being brought in by Calipari or fail miserably as a perimeter player and become irrelevant come draft day 2010. But this is probably a gamble he has to take. Had he stayed in the 2009 draft, it appears his spot would have been in the 15-20 range. If he brings a more varied offensive game to the camps next year he'll be a much hotter item.

Pace adjustments

I recently finished the pace adjustments and just wanted to post a few fallout notes:

• Players most hurt were Wayne Ellington and James Johnson. Both players were marginally on the good side with a couple of their numbers, but were knocked back to the pack after the adjustment. All Carolina and Wake players declined some, but Ty Lawson remains an impressive prospect.
• Georgetown did not get the bump they have in past years, so it appears what we see is what we get with Greg Monroe. He's going back to college, so those rebounding numbers might improve yet.
• James Harden's numbers were seriously boosted. He's back at the top of the SG rankings and safely in the top 5 of this draft, pending a closer look.
  
• The Big 10 plays a real slow game. Other than Michigan State, all Big 10 schools got a boost. It's not enough to make BJ Mullens look much better, but Kevin Coble and Mark Davis might get a closer look from me next year because of it.
  

Blair vs. Hill

Numbers matter. Players with better numbers are better prospects. If two players are at the same position and one posts numbers that are clearly superior against similar competition he's almost always the better prospect. Here's a comp of 2 PFs in the upcoming draft. One, Jordan Hill, has been top 5 in most mocks for most of the year. The other, Dejuan Blair, has been around 20.

Height:

Hill: 6'10"
Blair: 6'7"
Advantage to Hill here, though it might be best to wait for the official measurements on both height and wingspan before drawing any final conclusions.

FG pct:

Hill: .537
Blair: .593
Advantage Blair

Points per 40 minutes:

Hill 20.5
Blair: 23.0
Advantage Blair

Rebounds per 40 minutes:

Hill: 12.4
Blair: 18.1
Advantage Blair

Blocks per 40 minutes:

Hill: 1.9
Blair: 1.4
Advantage Hill

Steals per 40 minutes:

Hill: 1.0
Blair: 2.3
Advantage Blair

A/TO

Hill: 0.5
Blair: 1.0
Advantage Blair

Age at start of NBA 2009-10 season:

Hill: 22
Blair: 20
Advantage Blair

Motor:

Hill: Said to be non-stop and high-revvin'
Blair: Unknown at this point
Advantage: Hill I guess

Blair is younger. He scores more often and much more efficiently. He's a better rebounder by a wide margin. Defensively it's basically a wash, but safe to say neither will challenge Dwight Howard's reign as DPOY as a rookie. I'll add that with fewer prospects on his team, Blair led his team to much greater success than Hill during his career. Blair was co-POY in the nations' strongest conference. Hill was all-PAC 10 1st team. I'm not saying Blair will be a star. He has the height issue and potentially weight problems. But he has a much higher upside than Hill, who is pretty ordinary for a PF prospect.

When to go pro

Every year there's lots of debate over which prospect should or shouldn't go pro. Personally I feel such chatter is a bigger waste of time than the discussion over which is the 34th best at-large team for the NCAA tournament. The decision to enter the draft is a personal choice that each player has to make. It should be based on what's best for the player and nothing else. Because this is a personal choice, I like to stay away from stating my opinion of which players should and shouldn't go pro. Basically it's none of my business. I'll babble on annoyingly and endlessly about their chances for success, but I'm not in the business of giving input on important life decisions for people I know little about.
That said, I will say that from strictly a business standpoint, this is a great year for young centers and PFs to enter the draft. There is a dearth of quality big men available. Because of this situation young players with any potential are going to be in high demand whether they're ready to contribute or not. For some players this is going to be their last best chance to become a first round draft pick and get the guaranteed money that comes with it. It also goes without saying that earning a couple million for a season that would otherwise be spent playing for free on campus is a no-brainer from strictly a business standpoint.

Final 4 thoughts

I suppose this post is which prospects hurt/helped themselves the most. I'm sticking with players whose play showed something good or bad that I picked up on.

Ty Lawson: He was the dominant player in the tournament. I don't know if he put himself into the top 5 where I feel he belongs, but he certainly didn't hurt himself.

Wayne Ellington: He played harder than I've ever seen him play and looked like more than just a jump shooter. I would say he helped himself more than any other player.

Tyler Hansbrough: Every time he hit an outside shot, it probably boosted his stock.

Ed Davis: His announcement that he's returning to school will spare some team from making a Marvin Williams-type of mistake. Unless he changes his mind...

Delvon Roe: Did solid board work in both final 4 games. He's probably the top prospect on this team and could emerge as their best player next year. Since the Spartans don't exactly operate under a star system, I'm not sure exactly how good he'll look. I do know that he did nothing to disappoint.

Durrell Summers: He was a better passer in the tournament, a good thing since this had been a problem. Like the rest of the young Spartans, his time is going to be next year. They have a good group of young players and I assume all will be back. The finals experience had to be a good thing for all of them. This will be a team to watch next year.

Goran Suton: A big guy who can rebound and hit the outside shot should land in round one. The fact that he was able to display his skills helped him some.

Raymar Morgan: Other than a nice game against UConn, Morgan continued to struggle. With SF being the strongest position in the draft, I can't see where he helped himself.

AJ Price: Went 16-52 overall and 2-12 from behind the arc his last three games to cap a disappointing senior year. This after a nice start to the tournament. This isn't a great year for PGs, so Price still seems to be a likely draftee, but he didn't help his cause here.

Kemba Walker: Despite struggling in the final game, his PG numbers improved during the tournament. He still has a ways to go, but this is a good sign.

Hasheem Thabeet: He remains the player most likely to be drafted second overall.

Villanova: Despite their impressive and inspiring run, I still don't see any player here who made himself much of a prospect. They're a great story and it's possible one or two players got themselves a closer look, but as prospects they just don't measure up.

Searching for the elusive big man

The leadup to this draft has been a little different and kind of fun to watch. Because the prospects are thinner than normal, teams seem to be getting a little desperate in trying to find enough quality big men in the 2009 draft. There never are enough big players, but this year the problem seems especially glaring. This has played out in the way the mocks have gone throughout the year. For most of the year, Jordan Hill seemed like the next best big man to Blake Griffin and was ranked accordingly. The problem is Hill isn't all that good. It would be a stretch to project him as a starting NBA PF. So now the search starts. Greg Monroe seems to be back in the spotlight. He'd be a great prospect if he could rebound just a little. There also appears to be some buzz starting around Ed Davis, Carolina's freshman reserve. Davis has some things to like about him, but also has a raw offensive game. There's Cole Aldrich, a player I like quite a bit. So far Aldrich can't seem to crash the top 10, but that should happen as the process plays out. Dejuan Blair is there and could probably step right in and be a productive reserve, but he just doesn't seem to excite to many people.
Because these players are so vital to NBA success, teams prefer using high draft picks on big guy who's a gamble over a perimeter player who's more of a sure thing. That's why this draft, despite being fairly deep with perimeter talent, is being called one of the weakest in years.
This is an early guess as to how the big men will go:

1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Cole Aldrich
4. Greg Monroe
5. Ed Davis
6. Dejuan Blair
7. Aminu Al-Farouq
8. James Johnson
9. Jordan Hill
10. Justin Vanardo

Griffin is an obvious top pick. Thabeet is the obvious second choice, because of his height. Aldrich seems likely to end up 3rd, as his ability to play center is just too valuable to pass on. Monroe, Davis and Al-Farouq are all projects, but definitely worth an investment around pick number 10. I can't imagine Hill being taken ahead of Blair or Johnson once the players are matched up. Vanardo is a great shot-blocker and such players always have value. This list makes no assumptions on which players stay in college, so some may not even be there on draft day. t's not an impressive group and I suspect 10 years from now the majority of these players will no longer even be in the league.

Calipari to Kentucky

Not much to say here, other than it generally sucks to be a college basketball fan. If you're a fan of 95% of the schools, any success your team has will be followed by the coach who built that success leaving for one of the other 5% of schools, also known as the traditional powers. If you're a fan of one of the traditional powers, it's also depressing because the only acceptable season is one that results in a championship and that happens once a decade or so even in the best programs.
Cal to Kentucky is part of life in college basketball. He'll probably do fine there, because he's one of the best recruiters around. No one can blame him for going after more money and probably a better chance to win championships than he had in Memphis. The pressure will be ramped up, but he seems like the type who will thrive on it.
As far as the prospects involved, I suspect this changes the status of Tyreke Evans entrance into the 2009 NBA draft from probable to certain. I have little idea what affect it will have on Pat Patterson or Jodie Meeks. I doubt Patterson will be affected much, as he's a talented player who would do well in any system. Meeks seems like more of a beneficiary of a system to me and he may never find his draft stock higher than it is now.

Sweet 16/Elite 8 ramblings

Right now I think Carolina looks pretty safe as the team to beat. Nova has been seriously good, but with no real NBA prospects, I'll be very surprised if they even get into the final game. Same for Michigan State. UConn is strong, but I doubt their perimeter guys can stay with the Heels. NC has enough depth inside that they should be able to neutralize Thabeet. That's the games, but this blog is about the prospects. Let's look at what the prospects have done for their prospects.

• Nothing happened to change my opinion that Tyreke Evans is the best perimeter prospect in college.
• Blake Griffin's defense is subpar and this could become an issue before the draft. Ditto for Dejuan Blair, but these two are by far the top PF prospets.
• Cole Aldrich could well be a top 5 pick if he declares this year. Aldrich had as good a tournament as any big man. With even the best big men having questions, Aldrich should start looking better and better to NBA people.
• This tournament is shaping up as belonging to Ty Lawson. He's had a couple disappointing finishes his first two seasons and seemed headed for another after sitting out some games with an injured toe. In 3 games Lawson has averaged 20 PPG, shot 57%, dished out 20 assists while commiting only 2 TOs. This performance, while playing injured, should convince any doubters that he's clearly the best pure PG in the draft and worthy of a top 10 pick.

Why hasn't Zoubek played more?

Why is Brian Zoubek, and Miles Plumlee for that matter, getting so little PT? In yet another disappointing tournament exit, the Blue Devils were crushed by Villanova last night. Zoubek played only 14 minutes, Plumlee didn't play. Teams don't win the NCAA championship without solid inside play. For most teams a 3- or 4-guard lineup is a necessity, because they lack any quality big men. Playing so many guards is just their way of getting the best players on the court. Duke doesn't have that excuse. While Zoubek is hardly the the next big thing, his per minute numbers are are something any center prospect would love to have on his resume. The pain of Henderson and Scheyer going a combined 4-32 last night could have been eased had Zoubek been utilized for some easy baskets and putbacks against Villanova's smallish front line.
It also bothers me as a draft geek that a decent prospect in Zoubek has spent 3 years wasting away in an offense that isn't suited to him. Coach K has a choice. He could tweak the offense for 2009-10, getting Zoubek, Plumlee and incoming freshmen Kelly more involved. Or he could continue with the smallball, run through the ACC and land a decent tournament seed before getting embarassed again.