Shooting Guards

When I rate players the main tool I use is statistical benchmarks. Players need to reach specific levels in specific statistical categories, otherwise the red flags start to come out. Most of these aren't hard and fast benchmarks, but more of a guideline. The one case where the benchmark seems like a make-or-beak deal for a prospect is SGs scoring at least 20.0 P40. Other things matter with SGs, but if they don't hit 20.0 P40, they simply don't make much of an impact in the NBA. There have been some college SGs out there who have been great all-around players, DJ Strawberry and Mark Tyndale to name a couple, who came in with a sub 20 P40 and barely made a ripple in the NBA. So this is an extremely important number for a player to reach. The other thing that seems to becoming more important for SGs every year is the ability to hit a 3-pointer. Because the 3-pointer has become a much bigger part of the NBA game in general, it seems that the marginal prospect who can't hit the shot consistently just won't even get a look. Another trend I've noticed in recent years with SGs is that if they don't make a name for themselves as a freshman or soph, they're going to be up against it. Marcus Thornton is a good example of this from last year.
This year's class isn't as impressive as the last couple, though a player or two always seems to step up. The problem is the players who have shown they can score--Anderson, Dunn, Harris and Hazzell--are either too inefficient or TO-prone. The players who have solid all-around games--Turner, Brooks, Higgins, Freeman and Green--need to step up their scoring. As with all the groups, the salvation could be the freshmen.

1. Evan Turner, Ohio State: The only returning player in this group who seems like he has the stuff to be a star. He has good size, is a solid passer and has an all-around game to die for. His scoring has been solid enough, but could stand to improve. Turner seems to have more the mentality of a PG or SF, in that he sometimes has a pass-first mentality. That seems unlikely to change this year, as Turner seems set to handle most of the PG duties again.
2. James Anderson, Oklahoma State: Started to come on and make a name for himself in the 2nd half of last season. This year he's the only one of the Cowboy's top 3 scorers from last year returning, so he could really bust out as a big time scorer. His TOs were a little too high last year, but that's the only weakness I see and it's something that's usually corrected with experience.
   
3. Manny Harris, Michigan: His mission this year is pretty simple. He needs to get his shot to fall more consistently from both inside and out. I get the feeling that if another offensive threat or two emerged on his team this task could be accomplished. Otherwise he's a terrific player who does many things well.
4. Paul George, Fresno State: See the earlier post for a detailed take on George. He needs to score more often and more efficiently.
   
5. Willie Warren, Oklahoma: He has a ways to go, despite the hype. His biggest issue is weak defensive numbers. His 4.2 RSB40 just isn't going to cut it. Generally SG prospects need to be at 7.0 and that's the base. Unlike scoring or passing, this historically hasn't been a skill that a player develops. At least not from the low number Warren is at now. Warren also needs to prove he can be a big time scorer. He looks like he has the skills to get that done, but until he actually does it I can't be totally sure.
   
6. Marshon Brooks, Providence: A sleeper to emerge. Providence is returning only 4 players from last years' roster and Brooks seems ready to move into the main role. He's a strong defender, but needs to step his offensive game up a notch. Mainly his 3-point shot needs to improve. Of course if one or more of the Friars' large freshmen contingent develops rapidly, Brooks could easily get lost in the shuffle, because he's not a returning star like some of the others here.
   
7. Cory Higgins, Colorado: His non-scoring numbers are solid across the board. He scored 19.7 P40 as a soph last year, so he's close there too. The main thing to watch with a player like this is whether he can crank up the scoring enough to get noticed and, if he does, can he keep his efficiency high and TOs low with the extra load.
8. LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor: A terrific scorer from both inside and out who should get even more opportunities now that Jerrels and Rogers have moved on. His pressing issue is improving his passing. His A/TO was 0.34 last year, which would be a red flag for a any player, let alone a guard. He went through a stretch of 12 games without being credited with an assist. Part of that could have been his team circumstance. Jerrells, Carter and Dugat were all pretty good at distributing the ball and Dunn was very good at putting it in the basket. Still, 0.34 is really bad. Simply put, if he can fix that he's a pretty solid prospect. It's a big mountain to climb though.
   
9. Terrico White, Mississippi: White checked in with a decent freshman year and will be counted on more this year with David Huertas having left the team. His numbers come up a little short on everything except passing, so his task will be to become a more efficient scorer and a better defender while increasing his scoring load. It's a big task and if he can get it done, he'll be the lottery pick some already think he is.
   
10. Dominique Jones, South Florida: Good college player. He's close, but needs to score a little bit more and with better efficiency.