Searching for the elusive big man

The leadup to this draft has been a little different and kind of fun to watch. Because the prospects are thinner than normal, teams seem to be getting a little desperate in trying to find enough quality big men in the 2009 draft. There never are enough big players, but this year the problem seems especially glaring. This has played out in the way the mocks have gone throughout the year. For most of the year, Jordan Hill seemed like the next best big man to Blake Griffin and was ranked accordingly. The problem is Hill isn't all that good. It would be a stretch to project him as a starting NBA PF. So now the search starts. Greg Monroe seems to be back in the spotlight. He'd be a great prospect if he could rebound just a little. There also appears to be some buzz starting around Ed Davis, Carolina's freshman reserve. Davis has some things to like about him, but also has a raw offensive game. There's Cole Aldrich, a player I like quite a bit. So far Aldrich can't seem to crash the top 10, but that should happen as the process plays out. Dejuan Blair is there and could probably step right in and be a productive reserve, but he just doesn't seem to excite to many people.
Because these players are so vital to NBA success, teams prefer using high draft picks on big guy who's a gamble over a perimeter player who's more of a sure thing. That's why this draft, despite being fairly deep with perimeter talent, is being called one of the weakest in years.
This is an early guess as to how the big men will go:

1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Cole Aldrich
4. Greg Monroe
5. Ed Davis
6. Dejuan Blair
7. Aminu Al-Farouq
8. James Johnson
9. Jordan Hill
10. Justin Vanardo

Griffin is an obvious top pick. Thabeet is the obvious second choice, because of his height. Aldrich seems likely to end up 3rd, as his ability to play center is just too valuable to pass on. Monroe, Davis and Al-Farouq are all projects, but definitely worth an investment around pick number 10. I can't imagine Hill being taken ahead of Blair or Johnson once the players are matched up. Vanardo is a great shot-blocker and such players always have value. This list makes no assumptions on which players stay in college, so some may not even be there on draft day. t's not an impressive group and I suspect 10 years from now the majority of these players will no longer even be in the league.