The K State Wildcats

This group put on an impressive performance last night in upsetting top-ranked and previously-undefeated Texas. Using a hustling defense, a smart offense and the usual assist from Texas coach Rich Barnes, the Wildcats toppled a #1 that had been looking more vulnerable each game. Here's a quick rundown on the Wildcats' best players and where they stand as prospects:

Curtis Kelly: A 4th-year junior PF, Kelly transferred to Kansas State after spending 2 seasons as a little-used reserve with UConn. The move has been a good one as Kelly has blossomed into a decent prospect. He's not the impact type, but he'll get drafted if he keeps playing this well.

Jacob Pullen: The junior guard is the leading scorer. I'll probably rate him as a combo guard, because he is only 6'0". As a prospect he's shaky. His offensive game has been sensational this year, but his first two seasons were poor so I'm not yet convinced he is for real. The defensive numbers are a tad low, but not terrible. If he keeps things going like this he'll put himself in a position where he's in the round 2 discussion. He has the same problem many NCAA guards have in that he's too short to play SG.

Jamar Samuels: A sophomore SF with some promise. His outside shot is starting to fall, which is about the best thing that could happen for his prospects. As with all marginal SFs, Samuels will be a little more difficult to judge until I've seen him for a full season. He probably has a higher end than the other two right now.

Can Varnado keep it going?

The overall quality of big men available in the 2010 draft appears to be shaky for the 3rd consecutive draft. One big who has been solid so far and could be a surprise if he can keep his great year going is Jarvis Varnado from Mississippi State. Varnado is a senior who started making a name for himself last year as one of the nation's best shotblockers. This year his numbers are up across the board, but all big men take a significant hit to their numbers once the conference schedules get going. Here's a look at Varnado's numbers from last year and so far this year. These are his 2-point pct and points, rebounds and blocks per 40 minutes:

Through 1/31: .606 17.8 13.8 6.8
Feb and March: .487 18.7 10.3 6.3
2009-10: .618 19.6 15.3 7.3

The decline isn't as alarming as it looks. It is fairly normal for big men to feast on weaker small college teams in the non-conference part of the schedule. This gap here is a tad more drastic than most though, especially in the FG pct. For Varnado the key to moving himself into the lottery will be keeping the decline to a minimum. Not an easy task in the SEC. It is also important to note that his improvement over his junior year have put his numbers at a level that it will take almost a complete meltdown to knock him out of round 1.
One more thing we need to find out about Jarvis Varnado is how big he is. The official MSU athletic site and ESPN have him at 6'9" 230. Every other site has him at 210. I'm never sure who to believe. It is possible that he put on 20 lbs over the summer and most sites are just late on updating this information. Then again, schools are notorious for exaggerating the dimensions of their players in hopes it will boost their draft stock. The difference between 210 and 230 is a huge one for a PF. The pre-draft measurements will tell the story and it could be the difference in whether Varnado is eventually a starting NBA PF or just an energy guy off the bench.

Can Greg Monroe put it all together?

Greg Monroe is one of those players with whom it's baffling that he isn't more dominant. I'm talking about a player who is listed at 6'11 250. During his still-young career at Georgetown he has flashed the skills of a solid passer, defender and rebounder. As a scorer, he's had his moments but also has a ways to go. His stats show a different player as a soph than he was as a freshman:

Freshman: .578, 8.6, 4.3
Sophomore: .490, 11.7, 3.8

The first number is 2-point pct., followed by rebounds per 40 minutes and combined steals and blocks per 40 minutes. These are 3 numbers I consider most important for a PF. With both years there is a number so weak--rebounding his frosh year, 2-point pct his soph-- it would drop my rating of such a player out of the first round. With Monroe my feeling is that I should focus more on the positive, because his size/skill level is so impressive.
I'm not sure why Monroe can't become an unstoppable force inside. I suspect it is a mix of the Georgetown system limiting him and him wanting to play more of an all-around game. The important thing to remember here is not too many 6'11" player have ever excelled on the perimeter or as all-around players. The best bigs have operated inside.
That said, he's a better prospect today than he was a year ago today because he has shown he can rebound like a NBA big should.

Turner's back

Evan Turner's back injury is now looking like nothing more than a speed bump as he cruises to POY honors. After returning a month earlier than expected, Turner is right back where he left off. After he tested the back and got himself acclimated in a 20 minute stint in an easy Buckeye win vs Indiana, Turner has exploded the last 2 games posting 51 points, 17 boards, 10 assists and 5 steals while playing all but 2 minutes. This against strong defensive teams Minnesota and Purdue.
Turner's year started so strong that it had almost an unbelievable, even fluky feel about it. This was a player who went from reserve as a freshmen to a sophomore with a solid all-around game, to a junior who was suddenly the best player in the country. Having seen more than one upperclassman burst out of the gate, then watching him fade when the competition got tougher, I was naturally skeptical of Turner's start. But there was something different going on here. Turner was lighting up good teams like North Carolina as easily as he was destroying the patsies. It hasn't hurt his cause that Thad Matta has picked up the pace this year, going more uptempo after a couple of years of slow ball.
If Turner keeps this pace up we can toss him into the debate as the top pick over Wall. That may seem crazy, but right now Turner stands with Wall and Ed Davis well above the rest of the class of '10.

Saunders needs to score

One of the more impressive statlines this year is being posted by Duquense junior forward Damian Saunders. Sauders is averaging over 3 blocks, 3 steals and 12 rebounds per game. His scoring is not decent, but hardly up there with his other numbers. While he leads the Dukes in scoring, it's a balanced attack that features 5 players in double figures. Saunders leads at 14.3 PPG. His efficiency is decent, but not great. Good percentages, but doesn't get to the line enough.
Saunders is a SF at 6'7" 210. Since I like to go with history, here's a list of players I found who were in something I'll call the 10-2-2 club. That's at least 10 points, 2 steals and 2 blocks per 40 minutes. All are SFs and it's a pretty impressive group. The number listed next to the player is his points per 40 minutes:

Kevin Durant: 27.7
Shawn Marion: 22.8
Danny Granger: 25.1
Shane Battier: 12.4
Danny Manning: 28.2
Renaldo Balkman: 15.3
Lionel Simmons: 23.9
Terrence Morris: 20.8

Saunders is currently at about 16. What this suggests is that Saunders will almost certainly get drafted as all except Morris were 1st round selections. Battier's number is for his freshman season. He kicked that up close to 20 by the end of his 4-year career at Duke, but without exclusive membership in the 10-2-2 club.
There's really not much to be gleaned from this. It's a small sample and tells us the obvious. That Damian Saunders will likely be a role player in the NBA unless he starts scoring a lot more frequently, in which case he'll be a starter and possibly a star. That's not a bad place to be for a prospect who was barely on the map until last year.

Is Brackins actually a better prospect now?

I never took Craig Brackins too seriously as a prospect. He averaged 20.2 PPG and 9.5 RPG last year in his breakout season as a soph at Iowa State. He was on the fringes of the lottery in the mocks for a time, but decided to return to school. What I didn't like was his weak defensive numbers and a FG pct. barely over .500 on 2-pointers. The usual stuff that sinks a PF prospect with gaudy per game numbers.
This year the per game numbers are down to 16.9 and 8.1. In the mocks he's dropped to round 2 and seems to be fading. He seems likely to return for a 4th season in Ames. A closer look at his 2009-10 numbers suggest it isn't time to bury him just yet. Look at the improvements he's made to his game:

• He's shooting the 3-pointer much better. He hit about 28% of his shots his first 2 seasons. This year he's at .519. This is on only 27 attempts, but this is a guy who chucks up 75 treys a year, so he does like the outside shot. Time will tell if the improvement is real, but it's a good start.
• He's become one of the better passing big men in the country. For two seasons he was the typical NCAA big man with low assists and an A/TO around 0.6. Not terrible numbers, but typical. This year he's averaging 2.7 APG with an A/TO of 1.6. Passing isn't a huge asset for PF prospects, but the fact that he has changed his game some to benefit the team has to be a good thing.
• The defensive numbers have improved, particularly shot blocking. He's not exactly the 2nd coming of Bill Russell, but his defensive numbers are at the point where it isn't as big a concern as it had been.
  

Not huge changes, but significant. He's now the type of player teams should be looking at as a PF who can stretch the defense with his outside shot, but still defend and bag well enough. He still has a lot of work to do, as his 2-point FG pct. and rebound rate are both down this year. Bottom line is Brackins has probably helped himself so far this year with his play.

Smith and Echenique

Some notable news

Tyler Smith dismissed: Smith peaked as a prospect during his soph season. He was an excellent all-around player, who didn't score much. As a junior he struggled with an increased scoring load and went from lottery pick to suspect in my opinion. As a senior he improved some, but got caught doing some illegal stuff and now his college career appears to be over. The first thing to say here is I hope Tyler Smith and the rest of the Vols can get past this incident. It being a misdemeanor and a 1st offense, I suspect he'll be able to do just that. His prospect status is obviously hurt, but I doubt he's completely off the map.

Gregory Echenique transfers: Echenique is a PF from Rutgers who was starting to make a name for himself before an injury ended his sophomore season. No word on where he'll end up, but he'll be a player to watch wherever it is.