Sunday, January 10, 2010

Is Brackins actually a better prospect now?

I never took Craig Brackins too seriously as a prospect. He averaged 20.2 PPG and 9.5 RPG last year in his breakout season as a soph at Iowa State. He was on the fringes of the lottery in the mocks for a time, but decided to return to school. What I didn't like was his weak defensive numbers and a FG pct. barely over .500 on 2-pointers. The usual stuff that sinks a PF prospect with gaudy per game numbers.
This year the per game numbers are down to 16.9 and 8.1. In the mocks he's dropped to round 2 and seems to be fading. He seems likely to return for a 4th season in Ames. A closer look at his 2009-10 numbers suggest it isn't time to bury him just yet. Look at the improvements he's made to his game:

  • He's shooting the 3-pointer much better. He hit about 28% of his shots his first 2 seasons. This year he's at .519. This is on only 27 attempts, but this is a guy who chucks up 75 treys a year, so he does like the outside shot. Time will tell if the improvement is real, but it's a good start.
  • He's become one of the better passing big men in the country. For two seasons he was the typical NCAA big man with low assists and an A/TO around 0.6. Not terrible numbers, but typical. This year he's averaging 2.7 APG with an A/TO of 1.6. Passing isn't a huge asset for PF prospects, but the fact that he has changed his game some to benefit the team has to be a good thing.
  • The defensive numbers have improved, particularly shot blocking. He's not exactly the 2nd coming of Bill Russell, but his defensive numbers are at the point where it isn't as big a concern as it had been.
Not huge changes, but significant. He's now the type of player teams should be looking at as a PF who can stretch the defense with his outside shot, but still defend and bag well enough. He still has a lot of work to do, as his 2-point FG pct. and rebound rate are both down this year. Bottom line is Brackins has probably helped himself so far this year with his play.

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