Thoughts from last night's games

Watched significant parts of 4 games last night and here are some quick, random thoughts on the players and teams:

• James Anderson was impressive. Texas A&M is a smart, well-coached team and they defended Anderson well from the start. Anderson did what a player of his stature needed to do in such a situation. He drove the ball and got to the line for 11 FTAs. He found open teammates, dishing out a season-high 7 assists. He led his team to a hard-fought victory in what is looking more and more like the nation's best conference.
• The Big Ten is not an easy place to excel. This point is basically about Evan Turner. He checked in with another impressive game last night on his way to most college POY honors. That he can put up such impressive numbers playing this type of game just adds to my already-high opinion of him. The Big Ten game is slow, methodical and focused on defense. It isn't surprising that the conference is slowly sliding further behind the other majors in overall quality. Slow defensive play just isn't going to attract the top HS stars.
• Bruce Weber still hasn't shown he can recruit with the best. Since taking players recruited by predecessor Bill Self to the championship game, Illinois coach Bruce Weber has struggled to get the program back to elite status. That was supposed to change this year or next with back-to-back top 20 classes. So far though it has been more of the same as the Illini remain a bubble team.
• Duke is a legit national title contender. Forget the talk that this team is unathletic, or a bunch of chokers. The early tournament exits of recent seasons were due to one thing: lack of any inside game. The Devils are suddenly stocked on the inside, with 3 players over 6'10" capable of giving the team quality minutes.
• Florida State is a team to watch. The Seminoles have as much size and athleticism as any team. They have some issues with finishing, but this team is young and things could come together quickly for them.
• If Chris Singleton ever figures things out on the offensive end, he'll be a top 10 draft pick.

As always is the case with any thoughts I have while watching games it is important to point out that I'm not a scout who analyzes talent by watching games, but a stathead who is much better at gleaning info from the boxscore and stat lines. That said watching a game, with the sound turned down very low, is just part of the information-gathering process that I do.

Quick look at the top PFs

I believe the 2010 draft is going to become a PF draft more than any other position. Not only do good ones appear to be plentiful this year, but teams have traditionally loved using their lottery picks on big guys. The top 2 in most of the mocks are Derrick Favors and Ed Davis. Those two are followed by Patrick Patterson, El Farouq Aminu and DeMarcus Cousins. I decided to omit Patterson and Aminu from this group since both are combo forwards more than anything. I wanted to just compare the numbers of the top 3 at this point in the season. Numbers tell the story more than anything, so this should give us some idea of where these players will rank come draft day. Here are their 2-point pct, points and rebounds per 40 minutes, combined steals and blocks per 40 minutes and A/TO.

Cousins: .560 30.5 18.9 5.4 0.5
Davis: .594 21.0 14.0 4.9 0.6
Favors: .589 17.9 13.5 4.5 0.4

First thing to point out is these numbers have not been adjusted for pace. My guess is that when they are both Davis and Cousins will decline some, but not much. What these numbers show is that DeMarcus Cousins is becoming a monster prospect and right now any attempt to suggest otherwise or place another big guy ahead of him is just silly. Another point to make is Cousins' numbers have actually improved since the start of the month while the other two have seen the decline that most big men experience. This says Cousins is still figuring things out. Right now DeMarcus Cousins is the best big man in college basketball and I'm not sure anyone else is close.

Next best PG

In his most recent stock watch, Chad Ford mentioned Eric Bledsoe as a possible lottery guy and has him listed at #20 in his top 100 prospects. This makes him the 3rd-highest PG behind Wall and Willie Warren, at least according to the pundits. Going by stats, it is hard to like Bledsoe too much at this point. My opinion of him is that his time to shine will be next year and any call I would make on his prospects as an NBA PG would best be done after he has played the position for a year.
But this isn't about Eric Bledsoe. What I wanted to look at was who were the best PG alternatives to John Wall this year. In what looks like a very thin group, are there any out there who stand out? Here's a quick top 10 of PGs who teams should be looking at in the event they don't win the lottery. I included some who might be more SG or combo. The reason being it is early in the process and we shouldn't be eliminating prospects from consideration just yet.:

1. Jimmer Fredette, BYU: Dominating before being slowed by the flu, Fredette is the reason for BYU's great season.
   
2. Dominique Jones, South Florida: Not a pure PG, but is leading his team in assists. Good size makes him worth a look at either guard spot.
3. Mark Payne, UC-Davis: See recent post. His potential is what puts him this high on the list.
4. Jon Scheyer, Duke: I'm not sure he has the chops to make the jump, but his great season has him in the discussion.
5. Kemba Walker, UConn
6. Corey Fisher, Villanova: Similar players. Both play at Big East powers. Both are terrific athletes who need to improve their scoring.
7. Willie Warren, Oklahoma: Easily the most overrated prospect in the nation. Warren has weak defensive and passing numbers. His only saving grace was his scoring prowess, but that's even starting to fade.
   
8. Nate Rohnert, Denver: Size/stats numbers are great. Now we have to get past the fact that Rohnert is a senior who got little buzz during his career playing for a mid-major.
9. Jeremy Lin, Harvard: More of a scorer than a pure PG, but a good one. Plays in a weak conference, but he sparkled in games against major opposition.
10. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland: Same story as the rest of his career. Good college player who doesn't score efficiently enough to be a real prospect. Good size will get him a long look though.

This is a quick and dirty list that will probably look a little silly come draft day. Not too much should be read into it other than it is a current snapshot of the PG field behind John Wall.

Mark Payne

Mark Payne is a guy I've been watching this year. He's a 4th-year junior at UC-Davis. As a soph he put up some impressive efficiency numbers, but did so taking fewer than 6 shots per game and with little in the way of a perimeter game. What was impressive is he did this while running the point for the Aggies and posting a 2.4 A/TO. Another trait of Payne's that stands out is he's a 6'7" PG. This season Payne has become the Agggie's leading scorer while maintaining excellent efficiency and has put himself in the draft discussion in doing so.
With any small college player there are some issues that need to be discussed and analyzed. The first question is: How many ridiculously good numbers does Mark Payne put up and what are his weaknesses? Small college players must dominate their level. Stephen Curry did and he was able to make a smooth transition to NBA player. Payne has a couple of numbers that stand out. His career 2-point pct. is over .600 and he's averaging 2.9 steals per game. The other numbers are good enough, but fairly ordinary. The next question would be whether he is a PG, SG or SF. At 6'7" Payne brings some scary potential as a PG. At 6'7" we also have to wonder about his quickness. As a SG, he is still in the early stages of proving his scoring prowess. Early signs are encouraging enough to make me think that this is his most likely position. As an SF he's a little undersized, but has good athletic ability, so he might be able to make it work.
Payne is still somewhat of a longshot. The size/athleticism combo is there, but he's a late bloomer just arriving on the prospect scene at an age when most players are seniors. He's also at a small college that right now appears to be a longshot to make the tournament. In his favor is the guard crop is pretty thin this year.

The K State Wildcats

This group put on an impressive performance last night in upsetting top-ranked and previously-undefeated Texas. Using a hustling defense, a smart offense and the usual assist from Texas coach Rich Barnes, the Wildcats toppled a #1 that had been looking more vulnerable each game. Here's a quick rundown on the Wildcats' best players and where they stand as prospects:

Curtis Kelly: A 4th-year junior PF, Kelly transferred to Kansas State after spending 2 seasons as a little-used reserve with UConn. The move has been a good one as Kelly has blossomed into a decent prospect. He's not the impact type, but he'll get drafted if he keeps playing this well.

Jacob Pullen: The junior guard is the leading scorer. I'll probably rate him as a combo guard, because he is only 6'0". As a prospect he's shaky. His offensive game has been sensational this year, but his first two seasons were poor so I'm not yet convinced he is for real. The defensive numbers are a tad low, but not terrible. If he keeps things going like this he'll put himself in a position where he's in the round 2 discussion. He has the same problem many NCAA guards have in that he's too short to play SG.

Jamar Samuels: A sophomore SF with some promise. His outside shot is starting to fall, which is about the best thing that could happen for his prospects. As with all marginal SFs, Samuels will be a little more difficult to judge until I've seen him for a full season. He probably has a higher end than the other two right now.

Can Varnado keep it going?

The overall quality of big men available in the 2010 draft appears to be shaky for the 3rd consecutive draft. One big who has been solid so far and could be a surprise if he can keep his great year going is Jarvis Varnado from Mississippi State. Varnado is a senior who started making a name for himself last year as one of the nation's best shotblockers. This year his numbers are up across the board, but all big men take a significant hit to their numbers once the conference schedules get going. Here's a look at Varnado's numbers from last year and so far this year. These are his 2-point pct and points, rebounds and blocks per 40 minutes:

Through 1/31: .606 17.8 13.8 6.8
Feb and March: .487 18.7 10.3 6.3
2009-10: .618 19.6 15.3 7.3

The decline isn't as alarming as it looks. It is fairly normal for big men to feast on weaker small college teams in the non-conference part of the schedule. This gap here is a tad more drastic than most though, especially in the FG pct. For Varnado the key to moving himself into the lottery will be keeping the decline to a minimum. Not an easy task in the SEC. It is also important to note that his improvement over his junior year have put his numbers at a level that it will take almost a complete meltdown to knock him out of round 1.
One more thing we need to find out about Jarvis Varnado is how big he is. The official MSU athletic site and ESPN have him at 6'9" 230. Every other site has him at 210. I'm never sure who to believe. It is possible that he put on 20 lbs over the summer and most sites are just late on updating this information. Then again, schools are notorious for exaggerating the dimensions of their players in hopes it will boost their draft stock. The difference between 210 and 230 is a huge one for a PF. The pre-draft measurements will tell the story and it could be the difference in whether Varnado is eventually a starting NBA PF or just an energy guy off the bench.

Can Greg Monroe put it all together?

Greg Monroe is one of those players with whom it's baffling that he isn't more dominant. I'm talking about a player who is listed at 6'11 250. During his still-young career at Georgetown he has flashed the skills of a solid passer, defender and rebounder. As a scorer, he's had his moments but also has a ways to go. His stats show a different player as a soph than he was as a freshman:

Freshman: .578, 8.6, 4.3
Sophomore: .490, 11.7, 3.8

The first number is 2-point pct., followed by rebounds per 40 minutes and combined steals and blocks per 40 minutes. These are 3 numbers I consider most important for a PF. With both years there is a number so weak--rebounding his frosh year, 2-point pct his soph-- it would drop my rating of such a player out of the first round. With Monroe my feeling is that I should focus more on the positive, because his size/skill level is so impressive.
I'm not sure why Monroe can't become an unstoppable force inside. I suspect it is a mix of the Georgetown system limiting him and him wanting to play more of an all-around game. The important thing to remember here is not too many 6'11" player have ever excelled on the perimeter or as all-around players. The best bigs have operated inside.
That said, he's a better prospect today than he was a year ago today because he has shown he can rebound like a NBA big should.

Turner's back

Evan Turner's back injury is now looking like nothing more than a speed bump as he cruises to POY honors. After returning a month earlier than expected, Turner is right back where he left off. After he tested the back and got himself acclimated in a 20 minute stint in an easy Buckeye win vs Indiana, Turner has exploded the last 2 games posting 51 points, 17 boards, 10 assists and 5 steals while playing all but 2 minutes. This against strong defensive teams Minnesota and Purdue.
Turner's year started so strong that it had almost an unbelievable, even fluky feel about it. This was a player who went from reserve as a freshmen to a sophomore with a solid all-around game, to a junior who was suddenly the best player in the country. Having seen more than one upperclassman burst out of the gate, then watching him fade when the competition got tougher, I was naturally skeptical of Turner's start. But there was something different going on here. Turner was lighting up good teams like North Carolina as easily as he was destroying the patsies. It hasn't hurt his cause that Thad Matta has picked up the pace this year, going more uptempo after a couple of years of slow ball.
If Turner keeps this pace up we can toss him into the debate as the top pick over Wall. That may seem crazy, but right now Turner stands with Wall and Ed Davis well above the rest of the class of '10.

Saunders needs to score

One of the more impressive statlines this year is being posted by Duquense junior forward Damian Saunders. Sauders is averaging over 3 blocks, 3 steals and 12 rebounds per game. His scoring is not decent, but hardly up there with his other numbers. While he leads the Dukes in scoring, it's a balanced attack that features 5 players in double figures. Saunders leads at 14.3 PPG. His efficiency is decent, but not great. Good percentages, but doesn't get to the line enough.
Saunders is a SF at 6'7" 210. Since I like to go with history, here's a list of players I found who were in something I'll call the 10-2-2 club. That's at least 10 points, 2 steals and 2 blocks per 40 minutes. All are SFs and it's a pretty impressive group. The number listed next to the player is his points per 40 minutes:

Kevin Durant: 27.7
Shawn Marion: 22.8
Danny Granger: 25.1
Shane Battier: 12.4
Danny Manning: 28.2
Renaldo Balkman: 15.3
Lionel Simmons: 23.9
Terrence Morris: 20.8

Saunders is currently at about 16. What this suggests is that Saunders will almost certainly get drafted as all except Morris were 1st round selections. Battier's number is for his freshman season. He kicked that up close to 20 by the end of his 4-year career at Duke, but without exclusive membership in the 10-2-2 club.
There's really not much to be gleaned from this. It's a small sample and tells us the obvious. That Damian Saunders will likely be a role player in the NBA unless he starts scoring a lot more frequently, in which case he'll be a starter and possibly a star. That's not a bad place to be for a prospect who was barely on the map until last year.

Is Brackins actually a better prospect now?

I never took Craig Brackins too seriously as a prospect. He averaged 20.2 PPG and 9.5 RPG last year in his breakout season as a soph at Iowa State. He was on the fringes of the lottery in the mocks for a time, but decided to return to school. What I didn't like was his weak defensive numbers and a FG pct. barely over .500 on 2-pointers. The usual stuff that sinks a PF prospect with gaudy per game numbers.
This year the per game numbers are down to 16.9 and 8.1. In the mocks he's dropped to round 2 and seems to be fading. He seems likely to return for a 4th season in Ames. A closer look at his 2009-10 numbers suggest it isn't time to bury him just yet. Look at the improvements he's made to his game:

• He's shooting the 3-pointer much better. He hit about 28% of his shots his first 2 seasons. This year he's at .519. This is on only 27 attempts, but this is a guy who chucks up 75 treys a year, so he does like the outside shot. Time will tell if the improvement is real, but it's a good start.
• He's become one of the better passing big men in the country. For two seasons he was the typical NCAA big man with low assists and an A/TO around 0.6. Not terrible numbers, but typical. This year he's averaging 2.7 APG with an A/TO of 1.6. Passing isn't a huge asset for PF prospects, but the fact that he has changed his game some to benefit the team has to be a good thing.
• The defensive numbers have improved, particularly shot blocking. He's not exactly the 2nd coming of Bill Russell, but his defensive numbers are at the point where it isn't as big a concern as it had been.
  

Not huge changes, but significant. He's now the type of player teams should be looking at as a PF who can stretch the defense with his outside shot, but still defend and bag well enough. He still has a lot of work to do, as his 2-point FG pct. and rebound rate are both down this year. Bottom line is Brackins has probably helped himself so far this year with his play.

Smith and Echenique

Some notable news

Tyler Smith dismissed: Smith peaked as a prospect during his soph season. He was an excellent all-around player, who didn't score much. As a junior he struggled with an increased scoring load and went from lottery pick to suspect in my opinion. As a senior he improved some, but got caught doing some illegal stuff and now his college career appears to be over. The first thing to say here is I hope Tyler Smith and the rest of the Vols can get past this incident. It being a misdemeanor and a 1st offense, I suspect he'll be able to do just that. His prospect status is obviously hurt, but I doubt he's completely off the map.

Gregory Echenique transfers: Echenique is a PF from Rutgers who was starting to make a name for himself before an injury ended his sophomore season. No word on where he'll end up, but he'll be a player to watch wherever it is.