Blair vs. Hill

Numbers matter. Players with better numbers are better prospects. If two players are at the same position and one posts numbers that are clearly superior against similar competition he's almost always the better prospect. Here's a comp of 2 PFs in the upcoming draft. One, Jordan Hill, has been top 5 in most mocks for most of the year. The other, Dejuan Blair, has been around 20.

Height:

Hill: 6'10"
Blair: 6'7"
Advantage to Hill here, though it might be best to wait for the official measurements on both height and wingspan before drawing any final conclusions.

FG pct:

Hill: .537
Blair: .593
Advantage Blair

Points per 40 minutes:

Hill 20.5
Blair: 23.0
Advantage Blair

Rebounds per 40 minutes:

Hill: 12.4
Blair: 18.1
Advantage Blair

Blocks per 40 minutes:

Hill: 1.9
Blair: 1.4
Advantage Hill

Steals per 40 minutes:

Hill: 1.0
Blair: 2.3
Advantage Blair

A/TO

Hill: 0.5
Blair: 1.0
Advantage Blair

Age at start of NBA 2009-10 season:

Hill: 22
Blair: 20
Advantage Blair

Motor:

Hill: Said to be non-stop and high-revvin'
Blair: Unknown at this point
Advantage: Hill I guess

Blair is younger. He scores more often and much more efficiently. He's a better rebounder by a wide margin. Defensively it's basically a wash, but safe to say neither will challenge Dwight Howard's reign as DPOY as a rookie. I'll add that with fewer prospects on his team, Blair led his team to much greater success than Hill during his career. Blair was co-POY in the nations' strongest conference. Hill was all-PAC 10 1st team. I'm not saying Blair will be a star. He has the height issue and potentially weight problems. But he has a much higher upside than Hill, who is pretty ordinary for a PF prospect.

When to go pro

Every year there's lots of debate over which prospect should or shouldn't go pro. Personally I feel such chatter is a bigger waste of time than the discussion over which is the 34th best at-large team for the NCAA tournament. The decision to enter the draft is a personal choice that each player has to make. It should be based on what's best for the player and nothing else. Because this is a personal choice, I like to stay away from stating my opinion of which players should and shouldn't go pro. Basically it's none of my business. I'll babble on annoyingly and endlessly about their chances for success, but I'm not in the business of giving input on important life decisions for people I know little about.
That said, I will say that from strictly a business standpoint, this is a great year for young centers and PFs to enter the draft. There is a dearth of quality big men available. Because of this situation young players with any potential are going to be in high demand whether they're ready to contribute or not. For some players this is going to be their last best chance to become a first round draft pick and get the guaranteed money that comes with it. It also goes without saying that earning a couple million for a season that would otherwise be spent playing for free on campus is a no-brainer from strictly a business standpoint.

Final 4 thoughts

I suppose this post is which prospects hurt/helped themselves the most. I'm sticking with players whose play showed something good or bad that I picked up on.

Ty Lawson: He was the dominant player in the tournament. I don't know if he put himself into the top 5 where I feel he belongs, but he certainly didn't hurt himself.

Wayne Ellington: He played harder than I've ever seen him play and looked like more than just a jump shooter. I would say he helped himself more than any other player.

Tyler Hansbrough: Every time he hit an outside shot, it probably boosted his stock.

Ed Davis: His announcement that he's returning to school will spare some team from making a Marvin Williams-type of mistake. Unless he changes his mind...

Delvon Roe: Did solid board work in both final 4 games. He's probably the top prospect on this team and could emerge as their best player next year. Since the Spartans don't exactly operate under a star system, I'm not sure exactly how good he'll look. I do know that he did nothing to disappoint.

Durrell Summers: He was a better passer in the tournament, a good thing since this had been a problem. Like the rest of the young Spartans, his time is going to be next year. They have a good group of young players and I assume all will be back. The finals experience had to be a good thing for all of them. This will be a team to watch next year.

Goran Suton: A big guy who can rebound and hit the outside shot should land in round one. The fact that he was able to display his skills helped him some.

Raymar Morgan: Other than a nice game against UConn, Morgan continued to struggle. With SF being the strongest position in the draft, I can't see where he helped himself.

AJ Price: Went 16-52 overall and 2-12 from behind the arc his last three games to cap a disappointing senior year. This after a nice start to the tournament. This isn't a great year for PGs, so Price still seems to be a likely draftee, but he didn't help his cause here.

Kemba Walker: Despite struggling in the final game, his PG numbers improved during the tournament. He still has a ways to go, but this is a good sign.

Hasheem Thabeet: He remains the player most likely to be drafted second overall.

Villanova: Despite their impressive and inspiring run, I still don't see any player here who made himself much of a prospect. They're a great story and it's possible one or two players got themselves a closer look, but as prospects they just don't measure up.

Searching for the elusive big man

The leadup to this draft has been a little different and kind of fun to watch. Because the prospects are thinner than normal, teams seem to be getting a little desperate in trying to find enough quality big men in the 2009 draft. There never are enough big players, but this year the problem seems especially glaring. This has played out in the way the mocks have gone throughout the year. For most of the year, Jordan Hill seemed like the next best big man to Blake Griffin and was ranked accordingly. The problem is Hill isn't all that good. It would be a stretch to project him as a starting NBA PF. So now the search starts. Greg Monroe seems to be back in the spotlight. He'd be a great prospect if he could rebound just a little. There also appears to be some buzz starting around Ed Davis, Carolina's freshman reserve. Davis has some things to like about him, but also has a raw offensive game. There's Cole Aldrich, a player I like quite a bit. So far Aldrich can't seem to crash the top 10, but that should happen as the process plays out. Dejuan Blair is there and could probably step right in and be a productive reserve, but he just doesn't seem to excite to many people.
Because these players are so vital to NBA success, teams prefer using high draft picks on big guy who's a gamble over a perimeter player who's more of a sure thing. That's why this draft, despite being fairly deep with perimeter talent, is being called one of the weakest in years.
This is an early guess as to how the big men will go:

1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Cole Aldrich
4. Greg Monroe
5. Ed Davis
6. Dejuan Blair
7. Aminu Al-Farouq
8. James Johnson
9. Jordan Hill
10. Justin Vanardo

Griffin is an obvious top pick. Thabeet is the obvious second choice, because of his height. Aldrich seems likely to end up 3rd, as his ability to play center is just too valuable to pass on. Monroe, Davis and Al-Farouq are all projects, but definitely worth an investment around pick number 10. I can't imagine Hill being taken ahead of Blair or Johnson once the players are matched up. Vanardo is a great shot-blocker and such players always have value. This list makes no assumptions on which players stay in college, so some may not even be there on draft day. t's not an impressive group and I suspect 10 years from now the majority of these players will no longer even be in the league.