Jordan outplays Whiteside again

For the 3rd time this season Tulsa senior Jerome Jordan has outplayed Marshall frosh phenom Hassan Whiteside. This is news, because Whiteside appears to be a likely top 10 pick and could go higher should some team go all Olowokandi over him during the combine. Jordan meanwhile remains what he was coming into the season. He's a guy who seems likely to be drafted somewhere in round 2 and might stick around the league awhile because he's 7' tall.
What this shows is how raw Whiteside is as a player and that there are serious risks in drafting him too high. In addition to the fact that he can't figure out an ordinary prospect like Jerome Jordan, here are a few other issues Whiteside is dealing with:

• Turnovers. Right now his A/TO is 0.15. This is the biggest problem he faces. Players with a number this low typically are busts. The fact that this problem has gotten worse as the season progressed magnifies it. He is just a freshman and should get this improved. But that leads to another issue...
• Age. Whiteside will be 21 on draft day, meaning he is closer to the age of a typical NCAA junior than freshman. Not a huge deal as many of his numbers are outstanding, but it does shorten the learning curve on a player who is definitely a project.
• Fouls. Jordan had him in foul trouble all 3 games. Again, if a Jerome Jordan can put this guy on the bench for fouls, it is scary to think what the likes of Stoudemire and Howard will do to him.

Because he is a long 7' and has been blocking shots like few players ever, Whiteside is certain to be one of the stories leading up to the draft. Most of this is valid, as he has proven himself to be a solid rebounder in addition to his shot blocking. but he is far from being a sure thing.

Garcia declares

Seattle U's Charles Garcia declared for the draft yesterday. I've never given Garcia much thought as a prospect. His numbers never passed the first look test with me, so I've never really ranked him. I'll probably have to include him, simply to weigh in on a guy who might get drafted. There are numerous flaws here and very few positives. The flaws include a high TO rate, poor defensive numbers and a sub-.500 FG pct. He has posted a high P40 and R40, but I suspect those numbers will fall back to normal once I do pace adjustments. Garcia's numbers would be weak if he were a major conference player. Playing in a small conference, it is fairly ridiculous to think such a player is ready to make the jump to the NBA.

Terrence Jennings

Jennings is one of those players I like to keep an eye on, because I'm almost certain he is going to break out and become one of the NCAA's best big men. I thought that would happen this year, but he can't seem to get court time averaging only 13.2 minutes per game. His per minute numbers in blocks and rebounds are excellent and he's connecting on 66% of his shots, so what little time he has been on the court has been productive. Jennings being on the court has also been a good thing for the Cards. They've gone 14-3 when his minutes are in double figures, 4-5 when they're not. This post:

http://uoflcardgame.com/getting-through-to-terrence-jennings/12934

details some of the issues involving Jennings' minutes, including an inability to hit any shot other than a dunk and not practicing well. In the comments section one poster comments that Jennings and Samardo Samuels simply don't mesh well on the floor. It seems like the situation is if Jennings has it going on, he'll play. If not he sits.
A couple of thoughts on this. The first is players really need to think long and hard about where they're going to play college ball. The main thing prospects should look for is whether they'll get plenty of PT. Had Jennings stayed closer to home in the Pac-10, chances are he'd be getting big minutes now. The second is I feel both parties, Louisville and Jennings, would benefit from him getting more PT. Surely a coach of Pitino's brilliance, and I say that without a bit of sarcasm, can figure out a way to make this work for longer stretches in games. With Louisville probably safely in the tournament, but just a bad run away from the NIT, it might be a good idea at this point to throw Jennings out there and let him struggle for the sake of the team.
Either way, I still believe Terrence Jennings is going to be a force in college basketball soon enough.

Zoubek!

The big guy posted 16 points and 17 rebounds in just 22 minutes yesterday. For his first 3 seasons I had written that this guy was a player to watch. His per minute numbers and percentages were always solid enough. He was 7'1". Not a great prospect, but definitely a guy who should get a look as a NBA center. This year I had pretty much given up on him. His minutes were at the same part time level as previous seasons and it looked like he'd be another player who would always leave me wondering how his career would have turned out had he gone to a school where he played more minutes. Now that he has shown some signs of life we'll have to put him back on the watch list.

Davis out

It was announced yesterday that NC PF Ed Davis will miss the next 6 weeks, effectively benching him for the season. As a prospect, I doubt this affects his status too much. I was looking forward to seeing if he could elevate his game and team for a stretch run. But I doubt it would have changed my opinion of him much and the 2010 Tar Heels seemed like a tough place for him to show his best stuff anyways. Too many mediocre players taking too many opportunities away from him. Should he enter the draft, as I'm guessing he will, he'll be healthy for the workouts and combines which, right or wrong, seems to be the part of the process scouts take the most stock in.
What will be interesting to watch in the fallout from this is whether freshman John Henson starts to emerge. Henson has started to flash a little of the promise that originally had him at the esteemed "highly-touted" level going into the season. If he gets Davis' minutes and role, it should give him an opportunity to shine.

Thoughts from last night's games

Watched significant parts of 4 games last night and here are some quick, random thoughts on the players and teams:

• James Anderson was impressive. Texas A&M is a smart, well-coached team and they defended Anderson well from the start. Anderson did what a player of his stature needed to do in such a situation. He drove the ball and got to the line for 11 FTAs. He found open teammates, dishing out a season-high 7 assists. He led his team to a hard-fought victory in what is looking more and more like the nation's best conference.
• The Big Ten is not an easy place to excel. This point is basically about Evan Turner. He checked in with another impressive game last night on his way to most college POY honors. That he can put up such impressive numbers playing this type of game just adds to my already-high opinion of him. The Big Ten game is slow, methodical and focused on defense. It isn't surprising that the conference is slowly sliding further behind the other majors in overall quality. Slow defensive play just isn't going to attract the top HS stars.
• Bruce Weber still hasn't shown he can recruit with the best. Since taking players recruited by predecessor Bill Self to the championship game, Illinois coach Bruce Weber has struggled to get the program back to elite status. That was supposed to change this year or next with back-to-back top 20 classes. So far though it has been more of the same as the Illini remain a bubble team.
• Duke is a legit national title contender. Forget the talk that this team is unathletic, or a bunch of chokers. The early tournament exits of recent seasons were due to one thing: lack of any inside game. The Devils are suddenly stocked on the inside, with 3 players over 6'10" capable of giving the team quality minutes.
• Florida State is a team to watch. The Seminoles have as much size and athleticism as any team. They have some issues with finishing, but this team is young and things could come together quickly for them.
• If Chris Singleton ever figures things out on the offensive end, he'll be a top 10 draft pick.

As always is the case with any thoughts I have while watching games it is important to point out that I'm not a scout who analyzes talent by watching games, but a stathead who is much better at gleaning info from the boxscore and stat lines. That said watching a game, with the sound turned down very low, is just part of the information-gathering process that I do.

Quick look at the top PFs

I believe the 2010 draft is going to become a PF draft more than any other position. Not only do good ones appear to be plentiful this year, but teams have traditionally loved using their lottery picks on big guys. The top 2 in most of the mocks are Derrick Favors and Ed Davis. Those two are followed by Patrick Patterson, El Farouq Aminu and DeMarcus Cousins. I decided to omit Patterson and Aminu from this group since both are combo forwards more than anything. I wanted to just compare the numbers of the top 3 at this point in the season. Numbers tell the story more than anything, so this should give us some idea of where these players will rank come draft day. Here are their 2-point pct, points and rebounds per 40 minutes, combined steals and blocks per 40 minutes and A/TO.

Cousins: .560 30.5 18.9 5.4 0.5
Davis: .594 21.0 14.0 4.9 0.6
Favors: .589 17.9 13.5 4.5 0.4

First thing to point out is these numbers have not been adjusted for pace. My guess is that when they are both Davis and Cousins will decline some, but not much. What these numbers show is that DeMarcus Cousins is becoming a monster prospect and right now any attempt to suggest otherwise or place another big guy ahead of him is just silly. Another point to make is Cousins' numbers have actually improved since the start of the month while the other two have seen the decline that most big men experience. This says Cousins is still figuring things out. Right now DeMarcus Cousins is the best big man in college basketball and I'm not sure anyone else is close.