Concerns about Aldrich

This is something I just wanted to throw out there and not say much more about it than it's something to watch as the season progresses. Cole Aldrich has had his struggles when playing against other big men who are considered legitimate pro prospects. That problem surfaced again in a recent game against Oakland and Keith Benson:

Benson: 7-13, 20 P, 6 R, 4 B.
Aldrich: 2-10, 4 P, 9 R, 3 B.

This was also a problem last year:

Jordan Hill: 11-23, 23, 11, 0.
Aldrich: 2-4, 10, 4, 0.

Goran Suton: 2-8, 6, 7, 0.
Aldrich: 4-9, 14, 11, 3.

Chinmelu Elonu: 2-4, 7, 6, 1.
Aldrich: 8-13, 16, 8, 2.

Craig Brackins: 11-19, 42, 14, 0.
Aldrich: 7-12, 16, 12, 2.

Leo Lyons: 4-15, 13, 1, 0.
Aldrich: 3-8, 8, 15, 5.

Leo Lyons: 7-15, 20, 6, 0.
Aldrich: 8-13, 19, 14, 2.

Dexter Pittman: 5-11, 16, 3, 3.
Aldrich: 4-9, 12, 10, 3.

Goran Suton: 8-16, 20, 9, 1.
Aldrich: 6-13, 17, 14, 4.

The good here is that Aldrich outrebounded his opponent in just about every case. The bad news is he was seriously dominated by Jordan Hill and Craig Brackens and he was fairly ordinary against Leo Lyons and Goran Suton. The more bad news is none of these opponents appear to be anything other than NBA role players at best. That is the type of players a center drafted in the top 5 will be expected to dominate for the next 10 years or so.
I do understand that the Kansas system probably doesn't allow for Aldrich to be showcased as well as he could. I also understand that in most of these cases Kansas did come away with the W and stats are always secondary to such things. But this is a concern, as is the fact that his scoring is down in both frequency and efficiency so far this year.

Wesley Johnson

He's been one of the stories so far this year. The Syracuse transfer has shown an ability to score from inside and out while putting up solid defensive numbers. He led a rout of North Carolina and he's been quickly ushered into the first round of mocks around the WWW. So the questions are: Who is he? and What do we make of him?
Wesley Johnson is a SF who transferred to Syracuse after two fairly ordinary seasons at Iowa State. He's athletic and active defensively. In two years at ISU he was an erratic and inefficient scorer and a poor passer. His two-year percentages were .496 on twos and .316 on treys. After his soph season I doubt he would have made many top 10 SF lists. In his first season at Syracuse he's been terrific so far. He's scoring more often and his efficiency is fine, at .625 and .471. He's averaging a combined 5 blocks and steals per game and is also rebounding better than ever. His passing is still weak, but not enough so that it would sink him as a prospect.
As for his standing as a prospect, it's pretty simple. He has to continue to show the improvement is real. Because he's the same age as most seniors, 22, this year is likely it for him. If he comes back next year, he brings the baggage of being a 5th-year senior with him. For that reason I just can't get too excited about him yet. It is just four games, so the percentages shouldn't be taken too seriously. Until he can do this through a Big East schedule, I'm going to put more stock in the Iowa State numbers. I will say that it's impressive that his best games were against ranked teams.

Kentucky and North Carolina

These 2 powerhouse programs boast the most impressive freshmen classes coming in this season. Both schools have stumbled out of the gate, at least relative to how dominant their supporters had hoped they would be. Both schools have a different set of issues to work through before their showdown in 2 weeks.
Kentucky: While their wins haven't been dominating blowouts, I have to say that the Wildcat freshmen impress me early on. They all have some work to do, but it looks to me like there are at least 3 solid prospects here in Wall, Cousins and Patterson. There are also Bledsoe and Orton who could emerge down the line, but seem likely to take a backseat this season. The Wildcat defense has struggled some, but that's not uncommon for freshmen-laden teams and is something I expect Calipari to fix. Wall is obviously a great offensive talent when it comes to scoring and passing. The question of where he fits as a top prospect will be how dominating his defensive numbers are. He could be anywhere from a taller Derrick Rose to Jason Kidd with a jumper. Cousins has been a terror on the boards and defensively. He's scoring at a crazy rate for a part-timer. With big guys we can't be sure until they get it done consistently against major colleges, but Cousins is the most promising freshman big man out there right now. Patterson has also been solid. The important thing with him is he's hit 3 of his first 8 3-pointers. Since those are the first 3 of his college career, that's a good start on a skill he probably needs to develop.
North Carolina: The situation here is a little more muddled at this point. Not only have none of the freshmen really stepped up so far, sophomore Ed Davis, the best returning player, has been in a supporting role early on. It's as if Deon Thompson has moved into Tyler Hansbrough's role as the top option and Ed Davis is in the Deon Thompson role of second-banana in the paint. Davis is actually 5th on the team in FG attempts, as most of the offense has run through seniors Thompson and Marcus Ginyard. I guess it's good to let the seniors shine. But it's also good to let the best players have the lead roles. There's a reason Thompson and Ginyard are still playing college ball as seniors. That reason is they're not pro prospects. Ed Davis is and some of the freshmen might be. So far the frosh have been uninspiring in low minutes. The big guys don't board well enough to merit playing them ahead of Thompson and Tyler Zeller and the guards Strickland and McDonald have struggled to get their shots to fall.
But it's still pretty early.
But it is still early.

Thoughts from the first weekend

Not much to be gleaned yet. It's just too early to know anything. In fact this could be nothing more than me keeping in practice while I figure out what this blog is going to be like. Anyway here's some stuff I noticed prospects doing this past weekend:

• Ed Davis has 19 FGA, Deon Thompson 34 after 3 games. Davis needs to become more of a scorer if he's going to live up to his top 5 hype. He'll need more looks if he's going to get there. He'll certainly need to get the majority of the looks inside. The good part is he's hit .737 on those shots.
  
• Aminu Al-Farouq is averaging 24-11 and .640 in his first 2 games. It's not uncommon for stars from the big conference to pile on with the good numbers in early non-con match-ups. That could be what's going on here. The important thing for Al-Farouq is he appears to be stepping right into the lead role on this team. This is an obvious, but still necessary step for him.
• Marshon Brooks is averaging 17 PPG in 3 games with solid defense, passing and efficiency numbers. Like Al-Farouq, Brooks is in a great position to take over as the lead dog of his team. This is a good start on that daunting task.
• LaceDarius Dunn scores 61 points with 1 assist and 3 TOs in 2 games. He could score 50 PPG, but it won't matter if he doesn't learn to pass the ball once in awhile.
• Rotnei Clarke scores 51 points. We'll wait a few games on this guy, but it's cool to look at his stats and see that he's currently scoring 2.43 points per shot.
  

Point Guards

The theory would be that when what looks like a legendary class of PGs heads for the pros, there are going to be slim pickings left among the returning group. That's certainly the case for the 2010 returnees. Honestly, no player stands out as a good prospect among the returning NCAA PGs. I don't see any, with the possible exception of Walker, that I could even talk myself into at this point. No wonder we're all so excited for the debut of John Wall.

1. Kemba Walker, Connecticut: He probably was UConn's best PG last year, but because Price had played the position forever Walker had to wait in the wings. He put up some nice numbers for a combo. He needs to come in and prove he can be the full-time PG and he needs to start hitting treys more consistently. Even then he's undersized, but he's still the best of the bunch.
2. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland: His numbers are OK, but hardly the stuff lottery picks are made of. Mainly he has to become a more efficient scorer. His FG pct. was only .405 last year and he's never been a good 3-point shooter. If he can get his 3-point pct. up to .350 and his 2-point pct. to .500 while keeping everything else constant, he's a legit 1st-rounder.
3. Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga: He played a lot of PG for the first time in the 2nd-half of last season and fared pretty well. All his other numbers are solid, so he should be fine if he can handle it full time. His size is a concern. At 224 lbs I wonder if quickness will be a problem.
4. Talor Battle, Penn State: Not a bad little player. He needs to improve his percentages and he'll be right there as a prospect. Best pure PG in the big 10.
5. Devan Downey, South Carolina: I'd like to see him become more of a pass-first PG and less of a mad bomber. Or I'd at least like to see his scoring be done a little more efficiently. Of the 2 small guys on this list I like him a tad better than Randle because he's a better passer and defender. Randle is a better scorer.
   
6. Jerome Randle, California: He'll never be a full time NBA PG, but he's such a good scorer that I could see him developing into a decent bench guy. That's enough for 6th on this list.
   
7. Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas: He has a long way to go. Other than scoring efficiency, he comes up short everywhere. Collins was a better player last year, so it seems unlikely that Taylor will supplant him as PG. In addition frosh phenom Xavier Henry could push Taylor even further down in the Jayhawk pecking order. His opportunity may not happen until next year. As a tangent, I wonder why a player like Taylor would chose a program like Kansas, where competition for PT will be fierce. Why wouldn't he go to school where he would be handed the PG job out of the gate and have a better chance to grow into a star without getting caught in a numbers game?
   
8. Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech: He was going was OK last year, until a horrific shooting slump in March dumped his already marginal numbers in the toilet. He seems capable of getting back to where he was, which is a marginal prospect.
9. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State: Right now I'm struggling to find players. Lucas is worth mentioning, because he has some buzz elsewhere and he plays for a national power. His numbers are terrible though. Shoots less than .400 and his RSB40 is 4.0. In the mold of fellow Spartan Mateen Cleaves, he's a good college player.
   
10. Jon Scheyer, Duke: I mention Scheyer because I'm curious to see how he'll handle being a full-time PG. He's never been a high-assist guy, but his TOs have been low and he's been a very efficient scorer throughout his career, despite some low percentages. He's always been a solid defender too.
    

Shooting Guards

When I rate players the main tool I use is statistical benchmarks. Players need to reach specific levels in specific statistical categories, otherwise the red flags start to come out. Most of these aren't hard and fast benchmarks, but more of a guideline. The one case where the benchmark seems like a make-or-beak deal for a prospect is SGs scoring at least 20.0 P40. Other things matter with SGs, but if they don't hit 20.0 P40, they simply don't make much of an impact in the NBA. There have been some college SGs out there who have been great all-around players, DJ Strawberry and Mark Tyndale to name a couple, who came in with a sub 20 P40 and barely made a ripple in the NBA. So this is an extremely important number for a player to reach. The other thing that seems to becoming more important for SGs every year is the ability to hit a 3-pointer. Because the 3-pointer has become a much bigger part of the NBA game in general, it seems that the marginal prospect who can't hit the shot consistently just won't even get a look. Another trend I've noticed in recent years with SGs is that if they don't make a name for themselves as a freshman or soph, they're going to be up against it. Marcus Thornton is a good example of this from last year.
This year's class isn't as impressive as the last couple, though a player or two always seems to step up. The problem is the players who have shown they can score--Anderson, Dunn, Harris and Hazzell--are either too inefficient or TO-prone. The players who have solid all-around games--Turner, Brooks, Higgins, Freeman and Green--need to step up their scoring. As with all the groups, the salvation could be the freshmen.

1. Evan Turner, Ohio State: The only returning player in this group who seems like he has the stuff to be a star. He has good size, is a solid passer and has an all-around game to die for. His scoring has been solid enough, but could stand to improve. Turner seems to have more the mentality of a PG or SF, in that he sometimes has a pass-first mentality. That seems unlikely to change this year, as Turner seems set to handle most of the PG duties again.
2. James Anderson, Oklahoma State: Started to come on and make a name for himself in the 2nd half of last season. This year he's the only one of the Cowboy's top 3 scorers from last year returning, so he could really bust out as a big time scorer. His TOs were a little too high last year, but that's the only weakness I see and it's something that's usually corrected with experience.
   
3. Manny Harris, Michigan: His mission this year is pretty simple. He needs to get his shot to fall more consistently from both inside and out. I get the feeling that if another offensive threat or two emerged on his team this task could be accomplished. Otherwise he's a terrific player who does many things well.
4. Paul George, Fresno State: See the earlier post for a detailed take on George. He needs to score more often and more efficiently.
   
5. Willie Warren, Oklahoma: He has a ways to go, despite the hype. His biggest issue is weak defensive numbers. His 4.2 RSB40 just isn't going to cut it. Generally SG prospects need to be at 7.0 and that's the base. Unlike scoring or passing, this historically hasn't been a skill that a player develops. At least not from the low number Warren is at now. Warren also needs to prove he can be a big time scorer. He looks like he has the skills to get that done, but until he actually does it I can't be totally sure.
   
6. Marshon Brooks, Providence: A sleeper to emerge. Providence is returning only 4 players from last years' roster and Brooks seems ready to move into the main role. He's a strong defender, but needs to step his offensive game up a notch. Mainly his 3-point shot needs to improve. Of course if one or more of the Friars' large freshmen contingent develops rapidly, Brooks could easily get lost in the shuffle, because he's not a returning star like some of the others here.
   
7. Cory Higgins, Colorado: His non-scoring numbers are solid across the board. He scored 19.7 P40 as a soph last year, so he's close there too. The main thing to watch with a player like this is whether he can crank up the scoring enough to get noticed and, if he does, can he keep his efficiency high and TOs low with the extra load.
8. LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor: A terrific scorer from both inside and out who should get even more opportunities now that Jerrels and Rogers have moved on. His pressing issue is improving his passing. His A/TO was 0.34 last year, which would be a red flag for a any player, let alone a guard. He went through a stretch of 12 games without being credited with an assist. Part of that could have been his team circumstance. Jerrells, Carter and Dugat were all pretty good at distributing the ball and Dunn was very good at putting it in the basket. Still, 0.34 is really bad. Simply put, if he can fix that he's a pretty solid prospect. It's a big mountain to climb though.
   
9. Terrico White, Mississippi: White checked in with a decent freshman year and will be counted on more this year with David Huertas having left the team. His numbers come up a little short on everything except passing, so his task will be to become a more efficient scorer and a better defender while increasing his scoring load. It's a big task and if he can get it done, he'll be the lottery pick some already think he is.
   
10. Dominique Jones, South Florida: Good college player. He's close, but needs to score a little bit more and with better efficiency.
    

Small Forwards

The main thing players in this group need to do is up their scoring. They're all solid enough on the passing, rebounding and defensive end of things. They're also efficient enough as scorers. A good SF prospect needs to get the scoring average up to at least 18.0 P40, while maintaining some level of efficiency. It might seem like an easy step, but it really isn't. Last year Tyler Smith was in what looked like a perfect position to bust out as a star. But even though his scoring increased, his efficiency fell off dramatically and his play as the Vol's main guy raised more doubts than anything about his ability to make the jump. That's where man of the players listed here are going into 2009-10. This is potentially a pretty solid group. Like the other ones, best to just sit and watch things develop.

1. Kyle Singler, Duke: Possible college POY. His situation seems perfect for him to bust out this year. Singler was at a level last year where all his prospect numbers were strong. This year he could expand on that even more as he's set to play the perimeter more, after a year of basically playing PF. Of course this could also expose him as nothing more than an undersized PF, but I doubt that will happen. The main reason is SF seems like more his natural position. He's a good passer and a decent, if streaky, outside shooter. He's also already where he needs to be at every stat level as a prospect, so it seems highly unlikely that his logging more time at his natural position would have a negative impact on his numbers.
   
2. Robbie Hummel, Purdue: A very solid and unappreciated prospect. Hummel does everything well. Last year he was injured for part of the year and fell a tad short of his great freshman year numbers. He did pick things up at the end of the year though, leading Purdue to the Big 10 championship. He's one of the players who need to step up his scoring. His P40 was at 16.0 as a freshman and 17.3 last year. Problem with his situation is the Boilers return every main player from last year. A shakeup in the scoring hierarchy of a successful team seems unlikely, but he should be able to nudge it up another point or so.
   
3. Damian Saunders, Duquense: Brings monster defensive numbers, solid passing, efficient scoring inside and a decent ability to hit the three-pointer. Now he just needs to up his P40 from 14.7 to 20+. He might be able to do it. The Dukes leading scorer from last year, Aaron Jackson, is gone and Sanders seems like the likely beneficiary of his departure considering his place as the team's 2nd option and his potential scoring prowess.
4. Devin Ebanks, West Virginia: This is a nod to his ability as much as anything. Ebanks has a nice all-around game and is a great athlete, but falls way short as a scorer so far. He hasn't had the opportunity to be the main guy yet, but he also hasn't been very efficient with his chances, especially from the outside. Still, I prefer a young player like this who has the passing and defensive part of the game down, as opposed to a Luke Babbitt who is a decent enough scorer with weak defensive numbers. It seems scoring is a skill that's easier to develop. Playing on a loaded roster doesn't help his cause, but if he has the talent it should rise to the top eventually.
5. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU: He's one of those guys who is in the mix, but the more I look at him the harder he is to ignore. He's not as hyped as some other players, but he's the only player on this list other than Singler who has proven he can score with both the necessary frequency and efficiency and do all the other necessary things to be considered a decent prospect. As a senior on a team that lost their leading scorer, he appears set to step into that role this year. Everything looks good for Tasmin Mitchell in 2009-10.
   
6. Tyler Smith, Tennessee: I liked him a lot more as a sophomore than I did last year. Smith was given an opportunity to be the main guy last year and his efficiency took a big hit. He needs to push his FG pct. back over .500 like it was his soph year while continuing to score 20 P40. It wouldn't hurt if he also got his defensive numbers back to where they were his soph season too. He's talented, so there's a chance he can get back to where he was.
   
7. Gordon Hayward, Butler: Another soph who needs more scoring opportunities, he seems unlikely to get those on this team where balanced scoring and a disciplined attack has been a big part of their success. Hayward is a player though and I hope he's unleashed every now and then.
8. Luke Babbitt, Nevada: Babbitt is a scorer and that's good. He needs to be more efficient, but that should happen with time. The problem is he has some of the weakest defensive numbers of any player on this list and that doesn't bode well for him as a prospect. Because he's only going into his soph season we can cut him a little slack. But this s something he needs to fix before he's a serious prospect.
9. Chris Singleton, Florida State: Singleton has some ability, but also has a long way to go. With the Seminoles starting to stockpile a nice core of talent, Singleton's college ceiling seems almost destine to become nothing more than a defensive stopper on a very good team. He's got enough going for him, including youth and athleticism, but the odds seem stacked against him at this point.
   
10. Kevin Coble, Northwestern: A solid, efficient scorer and the possibly the best passer of all the players listed. He's a poor rebounder and his defensive numbers are barely there, so there biggest concern with him is whether he's strong enough for the next level.