Longshot

A quick tangent here. Just finished the book Longshot by Lance Allred. Allred was a 24 year-old, 6th-year senior who entered the 2005 draft out of Weber State where he played for 2 seasons after transfering from Utah. Allred came out as a strong rebounding center with few other skills. I remember him coming out and I doubt I had much good to say about him other than he could board.
His career stats will ultimately become just a blip in NBA history. But as a writer Allred is pretty darn impressive. His story takes him from a childhood growing up in a polygamist cult through many different rungs on the basketball ladder all the way to the NBA, all while dealing with deafness and afflicted with OCD. The story is told in such an easy and humorous tone that you almost forget what an amazing journey it was.
While Allred's atypical childhood makes for an interesting read, Longshot really picks up for the hoops fan when he first gets into basketball. Allred does a terrific job detailing the ups and downs of a professional basketball player chasing the NBA dream. While reading Allred's story you realize that so many things can derail a marginal prospect on his way to NBA. That it takes luck, timing, good situations in college and perseverance above all else to reach the point where you might get a 10-day contract.
Longshot is a quick, easy read that's well worth the effort.

Emerging Cs

Last in this riveting 5-part series. Same deal here as with the PFs. Big guys tend to fade once the conference games start, so the status of these guys is shaky until they keep things going into Feb. I'll also point out that this is shaping up as another weak year for the bigs. Aldrich has so far regressed, while rooks Cousins, Henson and Favors still have something to prove.

• Omar Samhan, St. Mary's: He's been a good player for awhile, but last year he and the rest of the Gaels took a backseat to the Patrick Mills show. This year he's the go-to guy and he's taken full advantage. In a close loss to Vanderbilt he destroyed AJ Ogilvy, which is a very promising sign for him. Seniors who suddenly emerge have a tougher road, but at least Samhan is putting himself in the discussion.
• Epke Udoh, Baylor: He's a junior transfer from Michigan. So far the lone star state has been good for him. He's hit over 60% of his shots so far and has flashed some terrific passing skills. Conference games will offer the real test for Udoh, as no conference has better big men than the Big 12.
• Hamady N'diaye, Rutgers: The senior has been a good shotblocker for 3 years now. This year he's blocking shots as well as any player in the nation. His other numbers are ordinary, but good enough. Shotblockers are always a hot item though so he has an advantage there.
• Brian Qvale, Montana: This junior has improved enough that the opinion we have to take with him is: He's not going to be a great player, but he's 6'11" 255 and is putting up good numbers across the board. That makes him worth a look.
• Eli Holman, Detroit: Sophomore transfer from Indiana. Marginal right now as a prospect, but he's starting to show some flashes. Turnovers are a problem he'll have to correct and playing at a lower level will require him to be more dominant than the others.

emerging PFs

Big guys are different from smaller players. Around this time of year there are often several who are off to hot starts. That ends once the conference games start and the competition gets tougher. With that in mind, I wouldn't commit any of these names to memory just yet. That said, these guys have stepped up so far and will be watched.

• Willie Reed, St. Louis: Sophomore is off to a great start so far that includes double-doubles against Iowa State and Notre Dame, 2 schools each with a pro prospect at PF. Concern with Reed would be his efficiency and whether or not he can keep it up.
• Herb Pope, Seton Hall: More of a combo than a true PF. Pope is listed as a junior, but only has a half year of experience coming in, having transfered from New Mexico State. Right now he's solid everywhere except for scoring efficiency. Because he's smallish he'll need to develop an outside game.
• Hassan Whiteside, Marshall: Impressive freshman. He's averaging 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 blocks and shooting 61% in just 22 minutes per game. His turnovers are way too high and Marshall's non-con was ridiculously easy. For those reasons it's best not to usher him into the mocks just yet.
• John Fields, UNC-Wilmington: Transfer from East Carolina is off to a good start as a 4th-year junior. He's hit all the important levels in each category. Because UNCW plays one of the tougher non-cons in the country his stats may actually improve as the season progresses.
• Nikola Vecevic, USC: Emerged as the best player on a rebuilding team. He comes up a little short on both defense and efficiency, but he's also a long, tall soph getting his first real shot so he's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

emerging SFs

A good group here. Lots of seniors are included. Like with the guards this might be nothing more than players off to a hot start who will fade as soon as the games get tough. For now they've made themselves better prospects than they were.

• Landry Fields, Stanford: He's gone from a little-used freshman and sophomore, to a starter as a junior, to an all-American candidate as a senior. He's scoring often and efficiently, rebounding like a PF and playing solid defense. It's not like with other emerging players where there seems to be a flaw here or there. His game has been rock-solid in all areas so far. Definitely a player to watch.
• Quincy Pondexter, Washington: Another senior who has taken his scoring and game up to all-American levels after 3 ordinary seasons. Like Fields the improvement here is across the board. The concern is he has yet to show any ability to hit a 3-pointer. Considering he's listed at 6'6" that's going to become an issue for him.
• Marcus Morris, Kansas: He's playing on a stacked roster, with at least 3 players ahead of him in the team pecking order. But he's been a terrific scorer in the minutes he's gotten. The other numbers are nothing special, but also not so bad as to be a concern. I get the feeling he's going to be getting more minutes and having more moments as the season progresses. He's been too good to keep under wraps for too long.
• Damian Johnson, Minnesota: Johnson is one of those players who puts up great defensive numbers and is solid everywhere other than scoring. He isn't exactly lighting it up this year, but his scoring frequency has improved and he's been much more efficient. He's also a much-improved passer. His defense has been better than ever. Players like Johnson rarely seem to make it, but the fact that he's stepped up his game so much makes him worthy of a mention here. Adding a consistent outside shot would help his case immeasurably.
• Tyren Johnson, Louisiana-Lafayette: Another senior who has stepped up his game after 3 ordinary years. He's a shaky addition to this list, but I wanted 5 candidates for each position and he was the best remaining option. My suspicion is he'll start to fade once the conference games start. He was only truly dominaznt in one game against Sam Houston and he struggled against big conference LSU. That said he's off to a great start and if he keeps going at this pace, he'll get himself a look.

Emerging SGs

The big question with these prospects would be: Can they keep the efficiency going at the same or close to the same levels for the entire season. With big guys the answer is usually "no". With guards it's a little different. While the non-con schedule is definitely easier for all players, things get considerably tougher for the big guys once the conference games start. That's why there's a little more hope for this group than for the PFs and centers I'll profile in a few days. But because this is a small sample we're looking at any one of these guys is a cold streak away from oblivion.

• Lason Kromah, George Washington: This freshman is off to a terrific start. GW has been spreading the minutes pretty evenly, so Kromah is averaging only 23 minutes per game. In that time he's been the Colonial's best player, putting up numbers that project him as a lottery pick if he continues this pace for a 1000-minute season.
• DJ Kennedy, St Johns. After a couple of ordinary seasons, this junior has come alive as a scorer. His defense and passing have remained solid, but this year he's the top scorer for the Red Storm and he's doing it with good efficiency.
• Aubrey Coleman, Houston: He had been on the radar before this, but his efficiency fell way short for him to be considered too serious a prospect. So far he's improved to the point where he has to be watched. His defense and athleticism are ridiculously good, so if he can handle the scoring he'll be a real good one. One last note on Coleman: it's very impressive that he's been scoring 27 PPG without the weak A/TO that has sunk many other high-scorers.
• Elliot Williams, Memphis: Like Coleman most people knew about this guy, because he was a HS all-American who headed to Duke before transferring to Memphis last summer. He's getting the chance to be the top guy and is proving to be as good as advertised. His case makes me wonder why more prospects don't look for a situation like this where they'll have a definite opportunity to start.
  
• Klay Thompson, Washington State: It remains to be seen whether Ken Bone can match the success of Tony Bennett. One thing that's happening though is the Cougars are empasizing offense, scoring 20 more PPG than they did last year. Thompson has been the main beneficiary with 25 PPG. The other numbers are strong also. He's a soph who is the team's leading returning scorer, so that and the new system could provide the perfect situation for Thompson to explode on the scene. One weakness Thompson has already fixed is his ability to get to the line. After attempting only 31 FTs last year, he's already at 72 this year in only 10 games.
  

PGs emerging

The '10 season is in full swing now and this week is a good time to look at some players who have emerged from obscurity and put themselves on the radar as prospects. Here are 5 PGs to watch this year. All are off to a strong start. Some or all could well fade back into obscurity as the season rolls on, but all are worth watching. Players are in no particular order.

• James Florence, Mercer: This senior has spent 3 years as one of the many high-scoring, low-efficiency, undersized SGs who dominate the smaller conferences. This year he's still filling it up, but is also averaging 5.1 APG and a 1.7 A/TO. His percentages are a career high .458 overall and .355 on treys. It's not always easy to keep up such improvement over the entire season, but if Florence can do it he'll get a look at the camps.
• Nate Rohnert, Denver: Good pro PG characteristics. He's tall, at 6'5". He gets to the line frequently and scores efficiently. His numbers have improved across the board for4 seasons. Like all seniors, he faces an uphill struggle to get noticed, but if he keeps his numbers at this level he should get a look.
• Jimmer Fredette, BYU: He's emerged as BYU's best player in this, his junior year. His numbers are solid across the board, but not great or dominating. Like the others he's good enough to be on the watch list, but hardly a threat to John Wall as the nation's top PG.
• Jeremy Lin, Harvard: Another senior who has built on an already solid college career and moved himself onto the prospect map in his final season. One thing to look at with small college players is how well they do when playing against the heavyweight conferences. Lin outplayed Kemba Walker in a close loss to UConn and followed that up with a 25-point effort in an upset of BC. His passing numbers need to improve a little more, but he's also worth watching.
• Reggie Moore, Washington State: A freshman who is off to a great start. After 10 games he has strong passing numbers and is the Cougars' 2nd leading scorer. He's averaging almost 2 points per shot, which is a ridiculous number for a PG. He does have weak defensive numbers and that's always a concern, but as a freshman he has some time to get that corrected.
  

Kentucky-NC thoughts

Some thoughts on the players and how they looked. The thing that was on display in this game and all season is how much more impressive the freshmen class of Kentucky has been. These programs were 1-2 going in, but NC's freshmen simply haven't lived up to their hype yet. Kentucky's have.

Ed Davis: Solid defensive numbers, but only 6 FGAs. Good if he plans on emulating Michael Ruffin. Bad if he hopes to remain in the top 5 of the 2010 draft.

Tyler Zeller: With 7-footers, especially those at elite programs, I like to keep them in the back of my mind and track them whether they deserve such attention or not. It's just that a great 7-footer is a game-changer more than any other type of player and such players need to be given more attention than perimeter players. Zeller is starting to show some signs. Nothing too spectacular yet, but his rebounding has improved and the fact that he was effective against a strong front line is impressive. Eventually Carolina is going to have to tighten up their roster and start giving bigger minutes to fewer players. Zeller seems a likely beneficiary.

Deon Thompson: It's probably time for him to go back to being a complimentary player. Right now he's only standing in the way of Davis, Zeller, Henson and the twins.

Patrick Patterson: As solid as ever. So far he's thriving with the talented frosh and that will only boost his stock. He's still money from close in and his outside shot keeps looking better. If he keeps this up, he's a top 10 pick.

DeMarcus Cousins: Some concerns about him were realized in this game. So far he's been spectacular, but erratic. This game only saw him as erratic. The positive is he made a few nice passes that belied his poor A/TO. I still consider him the top big guy out there. His upside is just too great at this point to pass on.

John Wall: He had a high number of TOs, but looked as good as ever. What I love about Wall is he's a PG first and foremost. Even though he's the most athletic guy n the court and can score easily himself, he looks first to get his teammates involved. This trait will serve him well and makes Kentucky the championship favorite this year. Everything else about him is solid. He looks like the next great NBA PG.